Chaos: The Presidential Election of 1996

[Jasen777]

Chaos: The Presidential Election of 1996


From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

Colin Powell had just published his memoir, and it had the President worried. Powell was leading him in the polls, but he was a phantom, presenting nothing that could be attacked. I was bringing good news however. Powell was pro-choice, for affirmative action, and favored some gun control. He didn't really have a party. Polls showed him way behind Dole in the race for the Republican nomination. "Congratulations," I told the President, "he can't win the nomination and so won't make it to the general - you've just won re-election." Of course, I had overlooked a possibility...


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

Most historians agree that in 1995 Powell had been strongly leaning towards declaring himself a Republican (this despite the fact that he had voted for Kennedy and Johnson). He had however, decided not to run for the Presidency. The wishes of Alma, his wife, in this decision was well known. History changed that terrible day in April. Alma was killed in a car accident. Colin, by all accounts, loved his wife deeply and her death hit him hard. He disappeared from public for a month. When he reappeared, it was obvious he was intent on running for president, all unease about seeking political office had disappeared. His inclination was still to run as a Republican. It is not certain what changed his mind. What is known is that he had a closed door meeting with several influential Republican Party leaders on June 12th. What happened there is still unknown. Some speculate that he was insulted personally, or perhaps became convinced that as a black man he couldn't win the Republican nomination. There is no evidence for this however. It seems more probable that he simply took a look at the information. Polls of him running as a Republican against Clinton had him winning. But polls also had him well behind Dole for the Republican nomination. Advisors also warned him (erroneously as it turns out) about the Bradley effect. Running as a Democrat would have put him up against a incumbent president, typically an impossible task in a primary. The prudent thing might have been to wait until 2000 to run. Perhaps if his wife had not died he would have. But he was intent on running in '96.

By fall of 1995, the race appeared to be taking form. President Clinton looked like he would be unopposed in the Democratic Primary. Bob Dole was a huge favorite in the Republican race, but he would face a large crowd of challengers. Colin Powell was as yet undeclared, but few doubted that he would run as an independent. Ross Perot was nowhere to be seen, and the third parties were their usual irrelevant selves. On October 1st, the first major nationwide poll with the 3 main candidates was published. The results:

Clinton: 32%
Dole: 30%
Powell: 30%
Undecided/Other: 8%.

It was a statistical three-way tie. The stage was now set.

[Jasen777]

From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

The President's opinion of me appeared to have dropped as a result of my failure to predict Powell's run as an independent (he hadn't declared, but everyone could now see it coming). Nevertheless, I was still a great asset for him… Dole had to focus on the Republican primaries; he was constantly absent from the Senate to be on the campaign trail. Powell was still undeclared. With some shrewd media buys and the free press available to an incumbent president, we were able to put out a positive image of the President, especially in what were expected to be crucial states... The political battle with Congress over the government shutdown also helped. We turned Gingrich into our whipping boy and used him to smear all Republicans with, even Dole who was trying to stay as far away as he could…


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

Clinton had clearly benefited from his showdown with Congress, and Dole was losing ground in the national polls as his Republican rivals attacked him. By late January, some analysts were even predicting that the Republican race was meaningless and that come November the election would be a two-man race between Clinton and Powell...

Aggregate Presidential Poll 01/31/96

Clinton: 35%
Powell: 30%
Dole: 26%
Undecided/Other: 9%


News Clippings -

Feb. 13rd

Dole Barely Survives Iowa
Strong Showings by Buchanan, Alexander

As expected, Bob Dole won the Iowa Caucus yesterday, gathering 24 percent of the vote. This is a disappointing showing for Dole however, as his air of inevitability has been critically punctured. Building on his win in the Alaskan Straw Poll, firebrand Patrick Buchanan came in second with 23 percent of the vote. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the strong third-place finish of Lamar Alexander who pulled in 21 percent of the vote. Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm finished in a practical dead heat for fourth with a disappointing 8% each. The Dole campaign must be concerned as the race now moves to notoriously underdog favoring New Hampshire…


Feb. 21st

Buchanan wins New Hampshire
Dole second, Alexander third

Pat Buchanan pulled off a surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary yesterday, winning 30% of the vote. Bob Dole barely hung on for second place over Lamar Alexander, 24% to 23%. With Steve Forbes positioned to win the Delaware primary in three days, one wonders what the future of the Dole campaign is…


Feb. 25th

Dole Wins Delaware
Dejected Forbes to Announce Withdraw

In a surprise victory that supporters hope will reinvigorate his campaign, Bob Dole won the Delaware primary with 34 percent of the vote to Steve Forbes' 28 percent. The Forbes campaign, which had counted on winning the state, is now expected to announce a withdraw from the race shortly.


Feb. 28th

Banner Day for Dole

Bob Dole swept the three primaries today: Arizona, South Dakota, and North Dakota. His campaign now believes they have rebuilt their air of inevitability that was lost in New Hampshire. This is likely premature however, as Pat Buchanan had strong second place showings in all 3 states. It now appears the Republican nomination has become a two-man race.


March 3rd

Buchanan Wins South Carolina

Just when things were starting to look up for Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan has handed him another setback by wining the South Carolina primary. Rhetoric had heated up between the two, and the state saw the hardest campaigning of the presidential season yet. Buchanan's narrow victory, 37 percent to 35 percent, likely means that the race will now become a protracted one. Republicans had hoped to avoid that, as President Clinton has been unopposed, and Colin Powell looms as well…


March 6th

Super Tuesday a Victory for Dole
Buchanan wins Georgia

Bob Dole won seven of the eight states up for grabs yesterday, with Pat Buchanan managing a win only in Georgia. This would seem to all but clinch the nomination for Dole…


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The strong challenge from Buchanan had been unexpected. With Powell looming over the proceedings, it was thought by many in the Republican base that a true social conservative would be needed in the general election, in order to draw a clear distinction from the other two candidates. This seems to have been what fueled Buchanan's rise. It gave Dole no choice but to move further to the right during the Republican campaign. Dole still had the money and the support of the party bosses to win the longer than expected race. It was clear after Super Tuesday that Dole would win the nomination. It was also clear that Buchanan could keep on campaigning and win a state here or there, and perhaps critically wound Dole for the general election. This lead to the deal that saw Buchanan surprisingly drop out of the race two days after Super Tuesday, and not so surprisingly, later receive the Republican vice-presidential nomination. Rumors that Dole disliked Buchanan and hated being stuck with him would surface later in the campaign. These rumors were confirmed after the election....

Meanwhile Colin Powell had shrewdly announced his official candidacy shortly after Dole's defeat in New Hampshire, and had received a round of favorable coverage from the press…

Aggregate Presidential Poll 03/10/96

Powell: 35%
Clinton: 33%
Dole: 24%
Undecided/Other: 8%

[Jasen777]

From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

I had warned the President that whenever Powell got around to officially declaring his candidacy that he would receive a bump in the polls, but the President was still quite upset. Other of his advisers seized the opportunity to poison the President's mind against me, and forced me out of his inner circle. In effect, I was fired. It was only natural then that I join Powell's campaign staff…


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The time from mid-March until the party conventions in August were relatively uneventful, especially compared to what came later. It was too early for the public to pay that much attention to the race, and they were experiencing news fatigue anyways after the Republican primary and the excitement of Powell's entry. Nevertheless, many important events transpired during this time. Perhaps the most important of these events was Powell's decision to pick Ohio Governor George Voinovich as his running mate. The campaign had hoped to pick a moderate Democrat for the VP slot, but all of the top choices were uninterested. The search then turned to independent and Republican candidates. Voinovich meet many of the campaign's wish items: he was a moderate (or could be presented as one), had solid economic credentials as the man who had turned around Ohio's economy, hadn't taken any real positions on a variety of national issues which left room open for maneuver, and had government, but non-D.C, experience. Of course, being a popular governor of a key state didn't hurt…

It appears that it was during this time that Perot was convinced by advisers that with Powell in the race there was no room for another independent candidate…

Aggregate Presidential Poll 08/01/96

Clinton: 35%
Powell: 30%
Dole: 26%
Undecided/Other: 9%


From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

… Voinovich wasn't a perfect pick of course, there were a few problems. His positions were generally acceptable, but he had taken an anti-abortion stance in the past. We were able to modify this to supporting abortion rights with reasonable restrictions, which of course was the line Powell was taking. I'm a believer though that the Vice-President pick doesn't matter much as long as he doesn't make any big mistakes. We were hoping he could deliver Ohio though… Powell had dropped in the polls as his honeymoon period ended and the public realized he was a real person and not some sort of political messiah. This was only to be expected, and we launched our "leader with vision and integrity" campaign in hopes of making ground back up. I was also taking a long look at the electoral map. We really needed to win some big states. Winning the eight largest states (California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan) would get us to 228 electoral votes and almost to the majority. This fit well with our mass-media strength, raising money had been no problem, but local level organization was still lagging, and would always lag behind the political machines of the Democrat and Republican parties. We deiced to focus then on the largest states, California in particular was absolutely critical…


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

August election news was dominated by the political conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties. The Republicans meet first in San Diego, and affirmed the presumptive nominee, Bob Dole. They also announced the worst kept secret in politics, that Pat Buchanan would be the vice president nominee. Strangely, Dole did not experience the bump in the polls that is customary after a convention. Most attributed this to reaction to Buchanan's speech…

The Democrats met two weeks later in Chicago. Although television networks grew impatient with the convention's tendency to run behind schedule, the convention was in general more of a success than the Republican one. President Clinton did experience the customary bump in the polls…

Aggregate Presidential Poll 09/01/96

Clinton: 39%
Powell: 26%
Dole: 26%
Undecided/Other: 9%

[Jasen777]

From the autobiography of Dick Morris-

August was a tough month for our campaign. The President's post-convention bump came largely at our expense. It put the President in position to run away with the race, and it threatened to put us behind Dole in the polls, something that would be fatal to our chances to ever mount a comeback. We badly needed a public relations coup, and the incompetent campaigns of the President and Dole handed one to us on a silver platter…


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The election saw perhaps the most wrangling over debates in modern history. Word leaked on Sept. 6th that the Clinton and Dole campaigns were working on putting a series of debates together, debates which would exclude Powell from participating. The public reacted poorly to this and it helped to reinvigorate Powell's campaign…

The three candidates only managed to get together for a single debate. It was in St. Louis on Oct. 3rd and hosted by PBS' Jim Lehrer. The debate was generally regarded as lackluster, and was highlighted by an argument between Clinton and Powell over who could best implement "sensible" reforms. It wasn't exactly clear what either meant by the term however. Clinton was generally considered to have won the debate, but it appears that it actually benefited Powell the most. He was able to show that he could hold his own on stage against Clinton, and he came across well in comparison to Dole who seemed a bit enfeebled in comparison…


Aggregate Presidential Poll 10/07/96

Clinton: 33%
Powell: 30%
Dole: 25%
Undecided/Other: 12%


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

As October moved on the populace was subjected to an intense barrage of ads from all three of the main candidates. The result was unexpected; the biggest effect of the ads was to raise the percentage of undecided voters...

The shape of the race had pretty much been set. Dole, although not particularly a staunch social conservative himself, was left with social conservatives and loyal Republicans. Powell was strong with independents and Republican moderates. Clinton was strong with liberals and loyal Democrats. The biggest battle seemed to be if Powell could draw a significant number of Democratic moderates away from Clinton…

Race had become a theme in the election due to Powell's campaign. Hindsight shows us that the so called "Bradley effect" had disappeared by 1996. This is not to say that there were not some racists who would refuse to vote for Powell, but that the lying of such voters that plagued certain polls in the past no longer applied. This was not realized at the time however. In any case, Powell was perhaps the perfect African-American to break the color barrier in presidential campaigning. Racism is a tricky thing, and its adherents seldom apply it consistently. Powell was a war hero, relatively light skinned, not given to making racial political points, and as one Powell supporter put it, "he doesn't act black." While someone like Jesse Jackson would have been utterly unelectable, Powell was electable...

The Powell campaign had made a sustained outreach to African-American voters, but most were sticking with the President. Polls constantly showed Clinton with a 2-1 lead in black voters over Powell, with Dole barely registering. Even such a showing as that among African-Americans by Powell represented a significant threat to Clinton...


Aggregate Presidential Poll 10/18/96

Clinton: 33%
Powell: 28%
Dole: 24%
Undecided/Other: 15%

[Jasen777]

From the autobiography of Dick Morris-

We were still trailing the President in the polls, and I was growing increasingly alarmed at the electoral college picture. Our internal polling showed not a single state that we could count on for a victory, whereas the President and Dole both had states in the safe category. We were in danger of finishing second in every state, an electoral college death sentence. What this meant was that we had to win nearly every state in which we had a chance. We badly needed an October surprise. Fortunately, I knew where we could get one…


Editorial -

Should the Lewinsky scandal affect your vote?

The scandal has dominated press coverage over the last week and pundits on all sides have reacted hysterically. Let's take a minute to review the actual facts that we know. The scandal broke when Linda Tripp released phone recordings of Monica Lewinsky and herself in which Lewinsky admitted to sexual encounters with the President. President Clinton at first refused to comment and then denied the accusations. Lewinsky has refused comment and apparently gone into hiding. Therefore, what we are left with isn't so much a "he said - she said", but a "he said - she was previously recorded as saying." Personally, I do not doubt the allegations at all, though there is nothing now that could be termed proof. The question however is should our votes be influenced by these revelations. I don't think they should. After all, we all knew that Clinton had these failings; did we not learn anything from his past scandals? If you were going to vote for him, I don't see how this changes anything…


From the autobiography of Dick Morris-

The scandal had hurt the President, but it likely wasn't enough, the electoral picture still looked bleak… Then Perot decided to endorse our campaign. We had been working on him for a long time. Many of his trade views were more in line with the positions the Dole campaign had adopted. Our campaign had tried to strike a careful course between free trade and protectionist rhetoric, which was another example of our campaign's attempt to claim the middle ground. Nevertheless, Perot was worried about the extremism on social issues that the Dole campaign had adopted and he had a bone to pick with the major parties. His endorsement would be a big help…

[Jasen777]

From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

We set up our result watching party in Sacramento and prepared for a very long night. The latest polls showed us in a dead heat with the President, but we hoped that the undecideds would break our way…

East coast results started to come in and they were a bit disappointing. Virginia was close, but it looked like we were going to lose it to Dole, which was an unpleasant surprise. We looked good for New Hampshire but the President was leading in Vermont. Maine and Connecticut were too close to call, and more importantly, so was Florida. The President picked up New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, none of which were surprising, but still a bit disappointing.

Our prospects picked up with the next round of projections. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin were all going our way. The President would win Illinois and Louisiana though, and Michigan was too close to call. We then got news we would win the classic bell-weather state of Missouri, but it looked like Texas in a ferocious 3-way contest would go narrowly for Dole, after which I knew we weren't going to achieve an electoral majority. We picked up steam as the projections moved west, but it wasn't going to be enough. We weren't going to win tonight…


News Update Desk -

"It's currently 2 A.M. on the East Coast, this truly has been one long election night. We can now project the state of Alaska for Senator Dole. This brings his projected electoral vote total to 110. President Clinton leads with 199, and Mr. Powell is in second with 123. Some states are still too close to call, as other networks have found out the hard way. Georgia is tight between Clinton and Dole, whereas Maine, Delaware, Florida, Oregon, and California are all still too close to call between Clinton and Powell. What this all means is that President Clinton is now the only candidate to still have a chance to win an electoral majority. In the national popular vote, we can now project Powell as the winner with approximately 36% of the vote compared to 35% for Clinton, and 27% for Dole."


Election Map as of early morning November 6th

Red - Dole
Blue - Clinton
Gold - Powell

[Jasen777]

Nov. 6th Evening News -

Florida has now been declared a victory for President Clinton, giving him an additional 25 electoral votes. With only California not decided, the electoral total stands at 228 for Clinton, 133 for Powell, and 123 for Dole.


From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

Therefore the election came down to California. The vote was very close between Clinton and Powell. If Clinton won the state, he would win the Electoral College, with a mere 35% of the popular vote, which would be the lowest popular vote percentage for a candidate to win the Electoral College in history. The public eagerly awaited the result, but it would be some time in coming. California had often been slow in counting early and absentee ballots, but it had never before mattered that much...

One of the many interesting results of the election was shown in Nebraska and Maine. They are the only two states the do not follow a winner take all system. The winner of the state gets two electoral votes, but the others go to the winner of each Congressional District. For the first time the winner of each of these sates did not win every district, and so their votes were split. Powell won both states (Maine was very close), but Dole picked up Nebraska's third district and Clinton won Maine's first district.


From the autobiography of Dick Morris-

It wasn't until November 11th that California was ready to declare Powell the winner of the state. The President of course demanded an immediate recount even though the margin was outside the margin for an automatic recount in the state regulations. That would not end until the 15th, and Powell still came out on top…

The election would now shift to the House of Representatives. That didn't offer much hope for our campaign…


Final Election Stats

Electoral Vote – 538 (270 needed to win)

Clinton - 228
Powell - 187
Dole - 123

National Popular Vote - 99,891,138

Powell – 36,193,596 - 36.2%
Clinton - 35,079,051 - 35.1%
Dole - 27,272,414 - 27.3%
Other - 1,377,256 - 1.4%


Final Election Map

Red - Dole
Blue - Clinton
Gold - Powell

[Jasen777]

From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The congressional races were nearly as interesting as the presidential race. 1994 had been a banner year for Republicans, and 1996, as expected, generally saw a bounce back for Democrats. In the Senate, this was obscured by the rotating nature of the elections, and the Republicans picked up two seats to increase their majority to 55-45. The picture was different in the House of Representatives however, as the Democrats threaten to retake the chamber. They picked up 17 seats, but in the end, the Democrats failed to topple the Republican majority. The final tally was 219-216.*

In the presidential race, when no one wins a majority of the electoral vote, the election goes to the House of Representatives. The vote then is by state instead of by representative, so it's necessary to take a look at the state delegation breakdown. The Republicans controlled 26 delegations, the exact number needed to be selected as President. Democrats controlled 21 delegations, and 3 were split. (See map on the next page). This gave Dole the inside track for the presidency, despite finishing third in both the popular and electoral vote. The Vice-President selection falls to the Senate in this situation, but they are only to choose between the top two vice-presidential candidates in the electoral vote. This caused a weird situation where the party in the majority did not have their party's candidate up for the vote. The Republican majority would have to decide between Gore and former Republican but Independent candidate Voinovich...

* - In this chapter independent Representative Bernard Sanders of Vermont is counted as a Democrat since he caucused with them.


House State Delegation Control

Red = Republican
Blue = Democrat
Gray = Split

[Jasen777]

Dole Not Voted In - Deadlock Continues

Just when the country was braced for a third place candidate wining the presidency, House Republicans suffered a defeat. Republicans control 26 of the state delegations and therefore Dole's victory was assumed. However, their bid suffered from two defections. Delaware's only representative, Michael Castle declined to vote. A moderate pro-choice Republican, Castle stated that he could not justify voting for Dole when his state had rejected him, but neither could he vote for Clinton. He hinted he might be open to voting for Powell if a genuine compromise movement arose. The Republican's second defection came from Iowa. In a surprise move, Representative Jim Leach announced his support for Powell, citing his disagreement with Dole's pandering to the right wing of the Republican Party. This move split the Iowa delegation 2-2-1 and thus prevented them from voting. These defections left the vote at 24 for Dole, 21 for Clinton, and 5 non-votes. Thus Dole came up two states short of the needed 26 to win the presidency. Two more votes were held afterwards, with the same results...


Editorial -
The Six Men who could be President

Yesterday's surprise vote by the House of Representatives has thrown the whole presidential picture into chaos. Dole's victory no longer seems certain. Let's take a look at the ways in which six different men could now be president.

Dole - This is the simplest outcome. If the Republicans get their defections back, they do control 26 House delegations and they can vote him into office.

Powell - If the House remains deadlocked, perhaps Powell could emerge as the compromise candidate. He did win the popular vote after all.

Clinton - The House could vote him back into office, although with the Republicans controlling 26 state delegations, it is hard to see how this would happen.

Gore - The Senate votes for the vice-president. If the House remains unable to come to a decision, the Senate's choice will become acting president. Without a Republican candidate, perhaps Gore could persuade the Senate to vote for him.

Voinovich - Or perhaps the Senate could be persuaded to vote for the former Republican governor turned independent.

Gingrich - If the House and the Senate both fail to elect someone, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will become acting president on Jan. 20th. Hopefully this scenario does not happen…

[Jasen777]

From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The House's failure to select a president put more pressure on the Senate, which had been hoping to avoid voting on the vice-presidency until the House had decided the presidency. Gathering on Monday, they managed what the House did not, coming to a successful conclusion to their appointed responsibility on the first ballot. By a 52 to 45 vote, with 3 Republicans abstaining, the Senate made George Voinovich Vice-President Elect. For the Republicans, he was their preferred candidate over Vice-President Gore. (Buchanan was ineligible because he was not in the top two for electoral votes for vice-president). The Democrats did not have the votes to appoint Gore, but they did have enough to boycott and prevent a quorum if they had wished. The prospect of an Acting President Gingrich (no matter how short lived his reign may be) may have caused them to bow to the inevitable. The focus then shifted back to the House, and word came that Representative Leach would change his vote and support Dole. This gave Dole the support of 25 state delegations, and the pressure aimed at Representative Michael Castle had to be getting very intense…


Jan. 9th - News Article

Third Place's a Charm: Dole becomes President-Elect
Voinovich to be Vice-president

Senator Dole, who finished in third place in both the popular vote and the electoral vote, was selected by the House yesterday to be the next president. This success was made possible by the return of Representatives Leach and Castle to the Republican Party's wishes. "We had no choice," Castle said. "If we hadn't selected a candidate, it could have gridlocked the whole government and caused a constitutional crisis. Dole was the only one who was in a position to win the vote and so I had to support him." This came after the decision by the Senate earlier in the day that made independent candidate George Voinovich the Vice-President Elect. This produces the unusual situation of a vice-president who had not run on the president's ticket. The conflict should be minimal however, as Voinovich was a Republican until his decision to run with Powell, and was considered a candidate to be the Republican's vice-president nominee before Buchanan gained the spot...


From the autobiography of Dick Morris-

So my campaign to win Powell the presidency was not successful. I took solace in the fact that it was the most successful run for an independent candidate ever. Of course, gaining the vice-presidency was an amusing turn of events. The maneuvering in the House was very weird. Did Leach and Castle not know the rules? Did they hold out to extract some sort of political concessions? My favorite theory is that Gingrich organized their defection in an attempt to gain the acting-presidency for himself. We'll probably never know…

[Nikephoros]

So you're faced with the VP being more popular than his president, but the President has very little popularity or respect.

[Alex]

I remember this TL from before... I would like to see what happens afterwards in this scenario. This here could throw the entire Electoral College system into disarray, or perhaps even a possibility of many people crying foul. After all, the technically least successful candidate, clearly not elected by the will of the people in general, was "chosen"...

[Jasen777]

From: Dead on Arrival - The Story of the Dole Presidency

Election fallout -

Politicians and pundits had of course already been decrying the possibility of a Dole Presidency. The public, by and large, had however taken a more wait and see approach to the situation (hoping for a Clinton or Powell victory in the House that was never likely). This changed when the House finally selected Dole and made him President-Elect.

The public reacted with anger at the obvious unfairness. Dole had finished third in the popular vote, with only 27.3% of the vote. Over 72 percent of the country had not voted for Dole. Dole had even finished third in the electoral vote as well. That fact that Dole was stuck with Vice-President George Voinovich, a person he had not ran with, was a further irritant, but not one that the average voter cared that much about.

Dole's favorability ratings, already low, dropped even further. Many people began to talk about Dole being a four-year lame duck. One Democratic Representative declared that the Dole Presidency was "dead on arrival," a phrase that was used to describe bills that had no chance of passing….

The election had left the Republicans in an unusual, likely unprecedented, situation. They had captured the Presidency after the four year Clinton interruption, and had held on to their majority in both houses of Congress. However, Dole's popularity was threatening historical lows even as he was being sworn in, and Congress' popularity was plummeting as well...

Buchanan and Cabinet Selection -

During the campaign there had been constant rumors of friction between Dole and Buchanan. The lid was blown off the story after election night when word leaked that Buchanan blamed their poor popular vote result on Dole's “uninspired campaigning.” That of course failed to make Dole like him more.

The real break however came after the House had officially voted Dole into the Presidency. Due to Constitutional rules, Buchanan had been ineligible to be selected to the Vice-Presidency. Buchanan though that as Dole's running mate he was entitled to the Secretary of State position, not withstanding the bad blood between the two. Dole however had never liked Buchanan and had had him practically forced upon him as his running mate. When Buchanan had requested the position and Dole did not immediately offer to nominate him for it (suggesting the Labor or Interior positions instead) the rift became permanent...

One of the reasons Dole didn't offer the Secretary of State job to Buchanan was because he had already offered it to Colin Powell. Dole was well aware that the unusual nature of his election would pose legitimacy issues. It was thought the best way to mitigate those would be to form a “Unity Cabinet.” The center-piece of the plan was the offer of the State position to Powell. But serious effort was made to include leading Democrats in the Cabinet as well. Inquiries were made to Al Gore and Hillary Clinton if they would be interested in Cabinet posts. Powell, Gore, and Clinton all declined. Powell appeared to be the only one to even give it serious consideration, but all 3 likely decided that cabinet positions under Dole would not be in the best of interest of furthering their political careers.

Dole then turned to Democrats of lesser stature, and even asked several of the secretaries under Clinton to stay on. This met with little success, as Democrats saw little reason to join what figured to be an unpopular administration and appeared to be under pressure from their national party leaders to avoid giving Dole any political cover by joining a unity cabinet. The only success Dole had with Democrats was when Jesse Brown, the Secretary of Veterans Affairs, agreed to stay in his position.

With little time left before his inauguration, and needing to send nominations to the Senate shortly, Dole had little choice but to rely heavily on the Republican Party establishment for Cabinet Secretaries. These were often experienced people who had served in previous Republican administrations and largely did not have plans for future elected office. A few businessmen were also pulled into the Cabinet...

The Dole Administration showed the same trend in filling other positions, demonstrated aptly by his Chief of Staff, Howard Baker....

Most of Dole's picks for cabinet posts were quickly confirmed by the Senate. The Republicans had a majority in the Senate and many of the Democrats were already counting on a Republican disaster in '98 and basically wanted to get out of the way and let it happen. This of course did not stop them from highlighting Dole making free (though legal at the time) use of ABM's private jets during Paul Mulhollem's hearings, though they didn't filibuster and the Agriculture Secretary was confirmed 52-44.

Perhaps the most controversial nomination though was that of Arlen Specter for Attorney General. Here Dole faced backlash from his own party due to Specter's pro-choice position. Some pro-life Senators lead by Orinn Hatch attempted to filibuster the confirmation vote, but were defeated when a large number of Democrats joined with the more moderate Republicans to quash any filibuster and succeeded in confirming the nomination. Ironically, the unusual nature of the election likely helped Dole in this instance. He was left with less time than normal to put together a Cabinet, and much of that time was spent on the failed “Unity Cabinet” attempt (it's commonly thought that Dole first offered the Attorney General position to Hillary Clinton). Dole's announcement that he would nominate Specter came only 2 days before the Senate began his hearing. This may have prevented a full-scale right-wing revolt...


Dole's Cabinet (1997)

State – Richard Cheney

Treasury – Jack Kemp

Defense – Donald Rumsfeld

Attorney General – Arlen Specter

Interior – Alan Simpson

Agriculture - Paul Mulhollem

Commerce - Paul O'Neill

Labor - Lynn Martin

Health and Human Services - Carroll A. Campbell

Housing and Urban Development - Arthur Fletcher

Transportation - Thomas Kean

Energy - Joe Moeller

Education - Lamar Alexander

Veterans Affairs - Jesse Brown

[RBC]

I really don't see Dole putting Cheney at State.

[bobc]

I really don't see Dole putting Cheney at State.

Why not? He would probably be looking for people from the Ford Administration to be cabinet picks.

[Nikephoros]

So basically no one that I like is in his cabinet.

[Jasen777]

So basically no one that I like is in his cabinet.

It's certainly not a cabinet for everyone's taste.

Anyways, I've been trying to write a novel, and that's going slower now so I'll be updating this timeline at random intervals.

[Jasen777]

From: The History of American Electoral Reform

It was not surprising that the 1996 election lead to popular discord with the electoral college system and a ground well of support for amending it or abolishing it altogether. Particularly grating was how the House had authority to set aside any consideration for the popular, or even the electoral, vote in an indecisive election.

Changing the electoral college system would not be easy however. There were several obstacles in the way. Republicans feared any change would be a de facto admission that Dole was an illegitimate president and that such an act would end any chance for the Dole presidency to succeed. The establishments of both parties feared that a change could lead to more independent and third party candidates having the success that Perot and Powell had enjoyed. Smaller states were concerned about becoming overlooked completely, and traditional swing states did not want to risk losing their importance. In addition, the most straight forward way to address the issue would be by a constitutional amendment, and the voting thresholds in Congress and the large number of states needed to pass an amendment would make any such process difficult.

Added to those obstacles was the disagreement on just how to change the electoral college and/or what to replace it with. The public seemed to want a popular vote, but did it make sense to have a candidate win the presidency with only 36% of the vote? Should there then be a run-off if no candidate had 50% of the vote? Would there be time for a run-off campaign and re-vote without delaying the inauguration, especially considering there could be a logistically difficult nation-wide recount? Or could something like instant-run off voting be employed? Others did not mind the electoral college that much and just wanted to end the House' role in the process. People with this view proposed schemes such as the electoral college run-off method - in cases where no candidate received an electoral majority, there would be a run-off between the top two electoral vote earners, to be decided by the electoral college method instead of a poplar vote.

Several representatives proposed to introduce amendments to change or abolish the electoral college, but were prevented by the House leadership from doing so. Another proposal was the National Popular Vote State Compact. It would see states agree to pledge their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. This had the virtue of avoiding the difficult amendment process, but would require a number of states representing an electoral college majority to ratify it before it would be implemented. This plan was slow to get started but received a major boost in the 1998 election when California voters approved it...

[RBC]

Why not? He would probably be looking for people from the Ford Administration to be cabinet picks.

Cheney's strengths are not as a diplomat.

[Jasen777]

1997-1998 -

Congressional Actions

On Jan. 21 1997, Bob Dole was sworn in as the 43rd president of the United States. His initial approval rating was 34%, unprecedentedly low for a newly inaugurated president. Congress' approval rating was just as low, and Newt Gingrich’s was even lower. The Republican brand had been badly damaged by the 1996 campaign and the matter in which the House had determined the election against the popular vote. Although Democrats also had voted party line in the presidential selection and there was a backlash against the political establishment in general, they were not hurt nearly as badly as the Republicans in the court of public opinion.

None of this changed the fact that the Republicans would hold the reigns of government for at least two years. There would be difficulties however. Moderate Republicans often failed to toe the party line, especially in the Senate, and Democrats had the votes to filibuster in the Senate if they wished to.

Things got even worse for Newt Gingrich when he was brought up on ethics charges in the House of Representatives. Fearing that Gingrich was already an election liability, and not wanting to see the first conviction of a sitting speaker, House Majority Leader Dick Armey, House Majority Whip Tom Delay, and Republican Conference Chairman John Boehner started a movement to vote him out as speaker. Gingrich decided to resign rather than face a leadership challenge and was replaced by New York Representative and Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Bill Paxon.

Despite its unpopularity and infighting, the 105th Congress did manage to pass some significant legislation. Perhaps the most dramatic was the Tax Payer Relief Act of 1997. Marginal tax rates were cut for all income levels, capital gains tax was slashed to 19% and the estate tax exemption was raised significantly. Although tax cuts are generally politically popular, Democrats criticized the act for favoring the rich and for being a thinly veiled attempt to buy votes. They were joined by some Republicans as well in criticizing it for causing it to be impossible to form a balanced budget. Most notably, the Secretary of Commerce, Paul O'Neill, resigned in protest over the act and from frustration of being edged out of influence in the Cabinet by Kemp and Cheney, to whom the quote “deficits don't matter” was attributed.

With perhaps even more controversy than the Tax Payer Relief Act, Congress passed the Iraqi Liberation Act, which called for regime changed in Iraq, as a response to Iraq's questionable cooperation with U.N. Weapons inspectors. Some Democratic congress members blasted it as “a de facto declaration of war.” It appeared that certain figures in the Cabinet lobbied Dole for direct military action to overthrow Saddam, but Dole was more concerned about bin Laden.

Other significant bills passed by Congress included the Copyright Term Extension Act and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, both of which came under harsh attack from consumer right's groups. In addition, the Glass–Steagall Act was repealed.

Dole and Osama

It was the failure to deal with Osama bin Laden that would become the dominant foreign policy issue of the first half of Dole's administration. Bin Laden had been high on the want list since his role in the training and financing of terrorists had been discovered.

On March 9th, 1998 Dole gave the go ahead to a CIA plan to capture bin Laden from his Kandahar compound using anti-Taliban Afghan forces. The operation went badly awry as bin Laden had been tipped off beforehand. The force the CIA had put together, at considerable expense, was met by an ambush and was soundly defeated. 6 CIA agents died in the operation and CIA agent Michael Smith was captured, along with the CIA plane they had planned to use to fly bin Laden to New York.

A week later Smith was beheaded on video. Dole ordered the military to attack several sites in Afghanistan suspected of being linked with bin Laden with cruise missiles in retaliation. Damage and causalities to bin Laden's network, Al-Qaeda, were thought to be light, most notably, the captured CIA plane had been destroyed. These incidents lead to an increased concern of Islamic terrorism in the U.S. and to increasing criticism of President Dole for his incompetent handling of the situation.

On Oct 28th, Al-Qaeda managed simultaneous bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, causing hundreds of deaths (including 13 Americans) and thousands of injuries. President Dole responded by ordering cruise missile attacks on suspected Al-Qaeda aligned sites in Afghanistan and Sudan. Most controversial was the destruction of a pharmaceutical plant that the administration claimed was working on producing chemical weapons for bin Laden, a claim that was heavily disputed. Dole also issued a demand that the Taliban government of Afghanistan turn bin Laden over or face the destruction of their regime.

[Jasen777]

From: A Electoral History of the United States

It has often been said, and with considerable truth, that the outcome of the mid-term election in 1998 was determined as soon as the House voted Dole into the Presidency. Additionally, the president's party typically lost seats in the mid-terms. Dole's, and Congress', popularity had inched slightly higher
from election day due largely to a strong economy. However, the bin Laden saga stopped Dole's momentum and his approval rating was at 40% heading into the 1998 mid-terms. Democrats had been eagerly looked forward to 1998, expecting to ride a wave of public discontent into congressional power. Optimistic predictions of a gain of 9 seats in the Senate in 70 seats in the House were made.

It was true that the public was upset with House Republicans for giving Dole the presidency, and that the Democrats had cause for optimism. In hindsight however, it is easy to see that their predictions were overly optimistic. After all, it was Powell who had won a plurality of the popular vote, so while there was widespread anger at Republicans, it did not transfer into increase support for Democrats in every race. The African Embassy bombings a mere week before the election had an uncertain effect...

When all the races were counted up, the Democrats did indeed pick up many seats, albeit not as many as they were hoping for. They gained 23 seats in the House and 5 seats in the Senate. Although impressive, this disappointed many Democrats, as it did not match the gains made by the Republicans in 1994. Nevertheless, the Democrats now controlled the House with a majority of 239-196. The Senate became deadlocked at 50 seats for each party and so Senate control rested with independent Vice-President George Voinovich, though as he was a former Republican and as part of a Republican administration it meant that the Republicans would maintain Senate leadership.

[Jasen777]

DEMOCRATS TAKE HOUSE – SENATE DEADLOCKED
November 3rd, 1998, CNN.com

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“The country has spoken clearly and have rejected the failed leadership of the Republican Party,” Speaker to be Gephardt said at the victory party. The election has given the Democrats a 239-196 majority in the House.



HILLARY CLINTON WINS SENATE SEAT
November 4th, 1998, NY Times

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The former First Lady won a narrow victory last night defeating Senator D'Amato 52% to 47%. New Yorkers proved not begrudge her move to their state and elected her after a hard fought battle. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned extensively for her. “I'm very proud” of her he said, “It was my turn to support her political career and I will continue to do so.” Pundits think this all but rules out an attempt on his part to regain the presidency in 2000.



CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN WINS SURPRISING VICTORY
November 4th 1998, Chicago Tribune

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Despite being slightly behind in the polls and mired with accusations of corruption, Senator Carol Moseley Braun eked out a narrow 50%-49% come from behind victory over her well-funded challenger, businessman Peter Fitzgerald. 'This victory shows that the people of Illinois rejected the smear tactics and fear mongering of my opponents,” Braun said.



DEMOCRATS OBTAIN NET GAIN OF 6 GOVERNORSHIPS
November 4th, 1998, USATODAY.com

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Democrats picked up governorships in: Alabama, California, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Ohio, South Carolina, Rhode Island. These were only balanced by losses in Nevada and Florida. With Minnesota still unclear this brings the total numbers of Democratic governors to 23, the Republicans still hold 25 governorships, and independent Angus King of Maine won his re-election.



BUSH BROTHERS WITHSTAND COUNTRY'S DEMOCRATIC SWING
November 7th, 1998, Weekly Standard

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George Bush handily won reelection as Texas governor this week whereas brother Jeb Bush narrowly won the Florida gubernatorial slot. Both men are among the few Republican bright spots in these mid-terms elections, fueling wide-spread speculation that either or both may be future contenders for the presidency.



JESSE VENTURA WINS FINAL RECOUNT
November 11th, 1998, Star Tribune

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The eccentric outsider has pulled off what few people thought possible and has won the Governor's race. The independent candidate prevailed in an extremely tight 3-way contest with 33.51%, compared to his Democratic opponent Hubert Humphrey's 33.46% and Republican opponent Norm Coleman's 32.79%. “The people of Minnesota refused to vote for politics as usual,” a triumphant Ventura said at a belated victory party.

[Jasen777]

OPERATION MOUNTAIN STRIKE LAUNCHED
November 16th, 1998, USA Today

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President Dole announced the beginning of Operation Mountain Strike yesterday evening. In an address to the nation Dole said that the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan left him no choice after they broke off negotiations to turn over Osama bin Laden, a fugitive wanted in connection with the African embassy bombings. “We will show the world that the United States of America will not allow countries to act as safe havens for terrorists,” the President said.

...

Some analysts worry that air power may not be enough to bring Afghanistan to heel. “The President has failed to win support in the region,” said retired General Jake Miller, “the logistics for a ground campaign simply aren't there. Planes based off carriers and from Indian Ocean bases, along with very limited special forces will be all that we can bring to bear. But frankly there is little in Afghanistan worth bombing.”


From: A Brief History of America's Undeclared Wars

The exact events of Operation Mountain Strike's ending are still in dispute, though a general picture of it can now be put forth. After nearly 2 months of bombing the Taliban's war capability had been greatly eroded, to the point that they were losing ground to the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance was made up of several different Afghan groups opposed to the Taliban and was likely receiving some weapons from the U.S. (though the Dole administration denied it).

On Jan. 12nd the Taliban moved to take direct custody of bin Laden. Whether this was a “precaution” or “misunderstanding” as Taliban officials have claimed, or whether it was to hand him over to the International Court (as Pakistan claims) or to the United States (as President Dole claimed) is unknown. In any case something went wrong and a fire-fight broke out between the Taliban and bin Laden's loyalists. Bin Laden died in the fight, and with his death Operation Mountain Strike came to a natural finish.

[Jasen777]

SECRETARY OF TREASURY JACK KEMP RESIGNS
January 20th, 1999, CNN.com

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Jack Kemp, Secretary of Treasury, surprisingly resigned at a press conference this afternoon. Kemp emphasized that his resignation was not due to any conflict with the Dole administration, but from a desire to spend more time with his family and to “explore other opportunities.” Kemp also thanked the President for nominating him to the treasury position and said that the President's critics have been too harsh on him. Kemp would not specify precisely what he meant by “other opportunities.”



From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Normally by the spring of the year before a presidential election, who many of the candidates would be was already clear, even if they had yet to formally announce or officially form an exploratory committee. But the 2000 cycle was coming along a bit slower.

On the Democratic side this was because people were waiting for an official word from former President Clinton as to whether he would run again. Few indeed would want to challenge Clinton if he choose to run. Although no official word was ever forthcoming, it started to appear more and more likely that he would not run. When former Vice-President Al Gore announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 4th, this was taken by many as a conformation that Clinton would not run. Within the next month, Bill Bradly, Al Sharpton, and Dennis Kucinich had formed exploratory committees as well. They were followed two months later by perennial near candidate Mario Cuomo...

On the Republican side everyone was waiting for President Dole. Dole had not yet said he would run for re-election. Normally that would be a given for a first-term president, but due to the unusual nature of his election, his low favorability numbers (hovering around 37% in early 1999), and his age (he would be 77 in 2000), it was far from certain this time. Dole had wanted to avoid the question as long as possible as he was apparently not certain himself about running for re-election, though some later claimed that he had actually made up his mind as early as the 1998 midterms. It's likely that if Dole decided not to run he would want to make the announcement as late as possible in order to mitigate a possible loss of political clout with Congress and the public in general. But as the Democratic race geared up, Dole came under more and more pressure from his important figures in his own party to make a decision...

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Complicating the timing of Dole's decision on running for re-election was the outbreak of Operation Allied Force (1). The U.S. was a major player involved in NATO's campaign to drive forces of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia out of Kosovo. The air campaign lasted from March 17th to May 28th and ended successfully with the withdraw of Yugoslavian forces from Kosovo. This made the second successful war the was won almost completely by air power. This contributed to the overconfidence that would later lead to so much trouble in...

The campaign drew considerable criticism from Democrats due to what was viewed as excessive civilian deaths and unnecessary destruction of civilian infrastructure from the bombing, as well as complaints that Dole was using the military as his private play thing because he was tired of dealing with Congress. This criticism stopped short of making any real attempt to stop the campaign however. There was also some criticism from a a small, but growing, segment of Republicans decrying nation-building and world policing.

After the successful conclusion to Operation Allied Force Dole apparently thought it was time to make his announcement...



DOLE SAYS HE WON'T SEEK RE-ELECTION
June 2nd, 1999, USATODAY.com

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President Dole dropped the political bombshell of the year last night. At his press conference he declared that he would not seek re-election. Dole cited his age the main reason. He also acknowledged that his term had been more stressful than he had imagined, a condition he blamed on hostility towards him due to the unusual nature of his election (the race was thrown to the House after no one obtained a majority in the Electoral College).

Speculation about potential Republican candidates is expected to be rampant over the next few weeks...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 – Largely went as in OTL

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

As expected, Dole's announcement led to a flurry of candidate declarations as those plotting in secret went public. By the end of June there was 11 significant Republican candidates who had formed exploratory committees or officially announced. Likely the most notable was Colin Powell, the winner of a popular vote plurality in the 1996 general election as an independent, who had expressed interest in running in the Republican primaries in 2000. But Powell was far from the only provider of star power in the field. 1996 vice-president candidate Pat Buchanan, Former Secretary of Treasury Jack Kemp, and Texas Governor Gorge Bush also headlined a crowded field.

A complete list of major Republican candidates as of July 1st, 1999:

Gary Bauer – President of the Family Research Council
Pat Buchanan – Former Vice-President candidate
George W. Bush – Governor of Texas
Orinn Hatch – Utah Senator
Duncan Hunter – Californian Representative
Jack Kemp – Former Secretary of Treasury
Alan Keyes – Former Ambassador
John McCain – Arizona Senator
Colin Powell – Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Dan Quayle – Former Vice President
Bob Smith – New Hampshire Senator


From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

I had become convinced that the endorsement of a major party was necessary to with the presidency so Powell and myself came to the conclusion that he would run for the Republican nomination in 2000 if Dole bowed out.

We had presented Powell as a reluctant candidate, drafted by the grass roots of the Republican Party to save the party from extremist conservatives. Most of the media was gullible enough to report it that way, though it did not seem like the Republican electorate much bought the story. The truth was of course that I had been working for years to gain support for Powell from Republican power players. After Dole's announcement my effort had some success, but Kemp was the clear favorite of the Republican establishment, with some waiting to see if Bush could become a legitimate contender. At least our name recognition was extremely high...


National Presidential Primary Preference Polls (July 20th, 1999):

Democratic -

Al Gore - 38%
Mario Cuomo - 21%
Bill Bradley - 17%
Al Sharpton - 10%
Dennis Kucinich - 5%
Other/Unsure - 9%


Republican -

Colin Powell - 32%
Jack Kemp - 21%
Pat Buchanan - 11%
George W. Bush -10%
Dan Quayle - 6%
John McCain - 4%
Alan Keyes - 2%
Gary Bauer -2%
Bob Smith - 2%
Orinn Hatch - 2%
Duncan Hunter - 1%
Other/Unsure - 8%

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Ames, Iowa. Home of Iowa State University and once every 4 years the unique combination fair, Republican Party fundraiser, and presidential straw poll. It is often considered the first test of strength of Republicans' campaigns...

Candidates who had little hope in Iowa often ignored the Ames Straw Poll so as to lower expectations. 1999's poll was no different as Powell, McCain, and Smith stayed away from Ames. All 3 men were hoping to make their first splash in New Hampshire instead of Iowa. In a still crowded field, Kemp pulled off a narrow victory over Bush. Even though the poll had favored candidates popular with Evangelicals in the past, the close 2nd place showing was regarded as a strong showing for Bush, who enjoyed a period of favorable press as a result.

With a disappointing 4th place result, finishing behind Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan was shortly to drop out of the race. His campaign had already been struggling as he had received little else besides hostility from the Republican establishment, many of whom blamed his extremism for allowing Powell to so easy claim the center in the '96 general election. Also to drop out shortly was former vice-president Dan Quayle who had managed to finish not just behind the top 4, but also Powell, who hadn't tried, and also-ran candidate, Alan Keyes.

Results of 1999 Ames Straw Poll:

Jack Kemp - 32%
George W. Bush -31%
Gary Bauer -8%
Pat Buchanan - 7%
Colin Powell - 6%
Alan Keyes - 5%
Dan Quayle - 4%
Duncan Hunter - 3%
Orinn Hatch - 2%
John McCain - .5%
Bob Smith - .3%
Other/Unsure - 1%

From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

Ames. Bah. You know who else did well in Ames? Pat F'ing Robertson.

[Jasen777]

BRADLEY IMPRESSES IN DEBATE
September 20th, 1999, CNN.com

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In the first debate of the presidential season, Bill Bradley was reckoned the winner by a majority of watchers. He scored points by calling for an end to the “rich favoring policies” of the Dole administration and managed to strike just the right balance between showing passion and seeming presidential. Al Gore's performance was regarded as solid, but a bit stiff. Mario Cuomo seemed to struggle a bit to condense his responses to the allotted 60 seconds. 2nd tier candidate Al Sharpton drew applause from the audience a few times but failed to score with those watching on television. The other candidate present, Dennis Kucinich, failed to make much of an impact.


BUSH SCORES BIG IN DEBATE – KEYES ARRESTED
October 13th, 1999, USAToday

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Front runners Colin Powell and Jack Kemp delivered solid performances in the first Republican debate last night, but the big winner was George Bush. When asked to named his favorite philosopher, Bush responded with a heart felt, “Jesus Christ, because he changed my life,” drawing a standing ovation from the audience. Gary Bauer and Orinn Hatch's attempts to match Bush's answer feel flat. Together with John McCain, Duncan Hunter, and Bob Smith they had little time in the debate overall, as Powell, Kemp, and Bush had a larger share of the speaking time in the debate.

Perhaps the biggest story of the night however came before the debate, when Alan Keyes attempted to rush the stage and was arrested. Keyes was excluded from the debate by the organizer, Saint Anselm University. “For space and time concerns we had decided to limit the debate to 8 people,” a university spokesperson said, “and Keyes, unfortunately, was 9th in our state polling so we couldn't invite him.”
Failure to gain an invitation did not deter Keyes however, who made it to the edge of the debate stage before being hauled off and arrested for trespassing and disturbing the peace. He is expected to be released on his own recognizance later today.


SHARPTON CRITICIZED FOR “JOKES”
October 14th, 1999, NY Post

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Democratic presidential candidate Al Sharpton came under fire today for a comments made at a fundraiser. “Isn't that just like Republicans, arresting a black man for trying to make himself heard,” Sharpton said in reference to Keyes' arrest at the debate. When asked about Powell, Sharpton replied, “He's not all that black.” Sharpton later defended himself saying, “those were jocular remarks the media took out of context.” Democratic front-runner Al Gore called Sharpton's comments “unhelpful.” When asked for comment Colin Powell said the remarks “do not lead to the kind of constructive conversations the country needs.”

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

The nature of the primary races were shaped by the lessons the two parties had learned over the last few election cycles. Perot's strong showing in the '92 election was an unwelcome event for the two major parties. Perot's voters represented a bloc that would be crucial going forward, and both parties made an attempt to woo them. The Republicans proved more successful in '94, highlighted by the Contract with America. The contract appealed to Perot voters who wanted reform and good governance. Some Democrats took it as a lesson that Clinton had been too liberal in his first two years by pushing for gays to serve openly in the military and for sweeping health care reform and had thus prompted a backlash that the Republicans were able to take advantage of.

The '96 election saw Powell's remarkable independent run capture a plurality of the popular vote, adding even more independents and moderates to the old Perot bloc. Both parties were concerned that they had lost the political center, at least in presidential elections, and decidedly did not want any further independent runs that were that successful. Even though Powell's run, and the House of Representatives, handed the presidency to Dole, the Republican establishment knew that that was a result that couldn't be counted on to repeat.

The '98 midterms saw a Democratic surge in Congress, which they viewed as a positive sign for gaining back the center. It was thought to be a result of their re-branding, combined with overreach by the Gingrich Congress (Republicans had more or less voluntarily vacated the center, in this view). Republicans tended to view it more as a rejection of Dole and the nature of his election, and were probably more correct.

The '98 elections did nothing to resolve intra-party squabbles however. Both parties wanted to reach out to the middle, but could not afford to alienate their bases. A liberal backlash arose in the Democratic Party as the left-wing thought they had done quite enough moving to the center and faced growing conflict with the southern wing of the party. The Republican Party was also experiencing troubles that accompany a big tent. The moderate northeast and west coast wings of the party (almost written off after '94 ) had experienced a bit of a resurgence and sometimes looked to Powell as an example. They, of course, came into increasing conflict with the conservative base and intra-party squabbling reached dangerous levels.

In the Democratic race Gore was able to establish himself as the front-runner on the power of his name recognition, DLC establishment support, and what he expressed as his moderate, and therefore electable views. His serious rivals, Bradley and Cuomo were both running to the left of him and were hoping to ride a wave of liberal discontent to a nomination victory...

The Republican establishment had sought to find a candidate that could first unite the party and then also appeal to independents in the general election. The choice of the majority of the Republican establishment was former Treasury Secretary Jack Kemp, a long time champion of the fiscal conservative wing of the party who was running on a 17% flat tax proposal. He was also solidly pro-life, and having learned from his friend Steve Forbes' failed run in '96, would be careful to play up family values issues and thus should be able to win over the social conservative wing of the party. Kemp was also a “bleeding-heart conservative” who had been noted for his work on alleviating poverty and assisting minorities that would hopefully appeal to independents in the general election (though of course he did not want to play up his support for some affirmative action programs in the primaries).

The more evangelical section of the Republican establishment looked towards Texas Governor George W. Bush as their candidate. He possessed a great appeal to social conservatives and was a solid fiscal conservative, though not nearly as experienced or articulate on that front as Kemp. He also had his own “cuddly” conservatism pitch he called “compassionate conservatism.” He was running as “a uniter, not a divider,” and hyped his track record of working with Democrats in Texas as well as his appeal (that is, relatively for a Republican) to Hispanic voters in his state. It was not as certain if he could appeal to independent voters in the general election however.

A man of undoubted appeal to independents was Colin Powell, who also happened to be the leader in all of the national Republican primary polls. Possessing the best name recognition, and perhaps the best electability argument of any non-incumbent ever, he would seem the obvious choice to appeal to independent voters and the political center in the general election. However he was pro-choice, favored some gun-control, and was even more pro-affirmative action than Kemp. It was far from certain the party could unite behind Powell, as a full-scale revolt from social conservatives looked like a definite possibility if he won the nomination. Powell was only able to win a small amount of support from the Republican establishment, consisting mainly of pro-choice Republicans that would not necessarily be of great help in a Republican primary.

Most of the other Republican candidates struggled to gain momentum. John McCain and Bob Smith (who was barely registering even in New Hampshire polls) found themselves being crowded out of the spotlight. Gary Bauer found his support waning as Bush gained strength. Alan Keyes likewise lost most of his small support to Bush's raise and eventual quit in disgust after continually being left out of debates. Orinn Hatch couldn't crack the 2% barrier in polls. The lone 2nd tier candidate with any momentum at all was Duncan Hunter, who was running an anti-immigration, anti-affirmative action, anti-free trade, “true conservative, no apology” campaign.

National Presidential Primary Preference Polls (December 10th, 1999):

Democratic -

Al Gore - 41%
Bill Bradley - 24%
Mario Cuomo - 18%
Al Sharpton - 6%
Dennis Kucinich -4%
Other/Unsure - 7%


Republican -

Colin Powell - 33%
Jack Kemp - 25%
George W. Bush -20%
Duncan Hunter - 9%
John McCain - 3%
Orinn Hatch - 2%
Gary Bauer -1%
Bob Smith - 1%
Other/Unsure - 6%

[Jasen777]

From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

Abortion. Guns. Abortion. Gays. Abortion again. The Republican party, especially the hard core faithful who attended rallies, was trying to throw itself off a cliff over issues that had already been settled. Fully automatic rifles were never going to be legal on a federal level. Under don't ask, don't tell, gays had be given a place in the military. Despite the desire of some to kick them all back out, it wasn't going to happen. And the question of abortion being legal was settled a generation ago. But a depressingly large number of Republicans would rather lose elections than recognize reality...


From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Colin Powell led in the national polls for the Republican nomination. He enjoyed almost universal name recognition, immense respect for his military career, and an outstanding electability argument. He also had little problem raising significant amounts of money and enjoyed generally favorable coverage in the media.

It was becoming increasingly clear though that he was failing to connect with the party base, which is obviously an important consideration in primaries. The national media speculated that it was because of his outsider and former independent status. Or, even rather patronizingly, due to his race. And it likely was true that some voters could not view Powell as a real Republican because of his independent run, and even likely that a small percentage of Republican primary goers would not consider him due to his color.

But the real deal breaker, and why social conservatives (a key Republican base component) could never accept him, was abortion. The national media had failed to realize just how big of a problem it would be for Powell. Attention was drawn to it however when Powell was booed, in a gross violation of debate etiquette, by the crowd during a debate in Iowa. The crowd had reacted negatively to Powell's answer to a question on abortion, which was a Clintonian “safe, legal, rare.” Powell had done some work to tailor his positions for a Republican primary audience, but there was only so far he was willing to go. His campaign team obviously felt that too big a shift would damage his image for steadiness and outweigh any gains he might make among voters. The fear was that voters might be understandably dubious about his motivations for change. Time would tell if that view was correct...


National Presidential Primary Preference Polls (January 23rd, 2000):

Democratic -

Al Gore - 37%
Bill Bradley - 28%
Mario Cuomo - 23%
Al Sharpton - 4%
Dennis Kucinich -3%
Other/Unsure - 5%

Republican -

Colin Powell - 29%
Jack Kemp - 26%
George W. Bush -21%
Duncan Hunter - 11%
John McCain - 5%
Orinn Hatch - 1%
Gary Bauer -1%
Bob Smith - 1%
Other/Unsure - 6%

[Straha]

If you post anymore pictures in this timeline I'm going to have to ask for your removal from this forum.

[Jasen777]

Gore and Bush Win in Iowa
Kemp Takes Alaska

Former Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush emerged as the big winners on the first day of presidential primary voting.

Gore won the Democratic primary with 43% of the vote, compared to Bill Bradley's 32%. Mario Cuomo, who had not campaigned extensively in the state, was third with 15%. Dennis Kucinich was forth with 6%, and Al Sharpton was last with 3%. This showing validates the long held view that Al Gore is the Democratic front runner.

In somewhat of a surprise, Bush defeated Jack Kemp 34% to 32%, behind a strong showing of support from Evangelical caucus goers. Colin Powell, the leader in national polls, did not campaign in Iowa and finished in fourth place with 10% of the vote. He finished behind Duncan Hunter, who placed third with 14% of the vote. Gary Bauer and Orinn Hatch both campaigned extensively in Iowa but only finished with 5% and 2%, respectively. John McCain, who managed 3%, and Bob Smith who garnered less than 1% of the vote, did not campaign in Iowa, and along with Powell are hoping to launch their camping from next week's New Hampshire primary.

In other election news, Kemp won the Alaskan straw poll with 34%, to Powell's 30%, and Bush's 25%.



Powell takes New Hampshire
Gore wins Democratic Contest

Colin Powell's focus on New Hampshire, and relative dismissal of Iowa, seems to have paid dividends as he won a impressive victory in the state's Republican Primary last night. Powell fished with 33% of the vote compared to 24% for Jack Kemp, 14% for George Bush, 11% for Duncan Hunter, 10% for John McCain, and 5% for Bob Smith.

On the Democratic side, Al Gore won with 40% of the vote to 32% for Bill Bradley and 24% for Mario Cuomo...



From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

The dual wins by Gore in Iowa and New Hampshire give him considerable momentum and a formidable air of inevitability. With the only Democratic contests before Super Tuesday being non-binding contests in Delaware and Washington there was little way for his challengers to build strength. And the fact that few states had moved their primaries to an earlier date was later showed to have been due to Gore's influence and, in hindsight, an impressive show of his hold on the Democratic establishment. Gore would go on to have a great day on Super Tuesday, and all but wrap up the nomination...

The picture on the Republican side was much more clouded post New Hampshire. Powell's win had reestablished him as the front runner in the eyes of many, and he still lead in the national polls, but doubts about his ability to connect to the Republican base remained. Bush had had a disappointing showing in New Hampshire, but had won the other great contest in Iowa, and his base among evangelicals could become more important as the race went forward.

Then there was Jack Kemp, who had finished in 2nd place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and had won the Alaska straw poll (which was rather unfortunately undervalued by the media, given that it's role in selecting its sates delegates is as influential as the Iowa's caucus is in selected their delegates). As a result, it was actually Kemp who held the estimated delegate lead after New Hampshire. Though the delegate selection process in Iowa and Alaska was complex and would not actually be decided for months...

Duncan Hunter was a factor as well, having survived the first week of the campaign, something that John McCain, Bob Smith, Orinn Hatch, and Gary Bauer did not accomplish.



AP Republican Delegate Estimation 02/02

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority

Kemp - 24
Bush - 22
Powell - 15
Hunter - 4
McCain - 1

Note: Some states - those ITTL that went for Powell instead of Dole in '96 - will have fewer delegates than OTL, due to GOP rules which award a state bonus delegates if they voted for the Republican candidate in the last presidential election.

[Jasen777]

Powell Takes Delaware

Colin Powell won a solid victory in the Delaware Primary, with 44% of the vote compared to 28% for Jack Kemp. The victory gives Powell all 12 of Delaware's delegates, likely propelling Powell into the overall delegate lead. Besides Powell's appeal to moderate Republicans, credit for his victory goes to Representative Michael Castle, who campaigned heavily for Powell in the state. It was Castle who reluctantly cast the decisive vote in the House that made Dole president after the 1996 election, an action he later regretted.


From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Powell's back to back wins in New Hampshire and Delaware gave him considerable momentum. It started to look like a win in South Carolina would lead to a inevitable Powell nomination. It would not be an easy state for Powell to win however.

The Republican Party in South Carolina was very conservative, especially on social issues, and a large share of the voters would be Evangelicals. It was a similar mix to Iowa Caucus voters, except in a possibly less favorable to Powell southern culture fashion. And Powell had (likely wisely) skipped Iowa.

The media noted South Carolina's expected conservatism, and brought up the specter of a Bush comeback after his back to back third place finishes in New Hampshire and Delaware. It was also expected to be Duncan Hunter's last chance to break into the top tier of candidates before he was permanently crippled by low funding. It's true that the South Carolina Republican electorate would be strikingly conservative, but perhaps overlooked by the media was the fact that the state's primary had tended to go strongly for the establishment candidate. More of the Republican establishment was backing Kemp, who had also joined the other candidates and hitting Powell hard on abortion...

The Powell campaign knew that a victory in South Carolina would not be easy. They likely did not expect just how ugly things would get however....


Powell Rally Hounded by Pro-Life Demonstration

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_xn_yC-zBQZ8/SUnoWq1Xg5I/AAAAAAAAAHM/HyjCDyEEbG0/s1600/story.abortion.protest

A political rally for Colin Powell yesterday in Charleston was interrupted by pro-life demonstrators. The demonstrators had been holding signs all day without much incident, until they began shouting pro-life slogans when Powell took the stage. Powell joked, thanking the demonstrators for exercising the freedom of speech rights and waited for police to move them further away from the rally...

“I don't care about any of his other positions if he supports killing babies,” one demonstrator said...


Powell and Kemp Campaigns Complain About “Robo-Calls”

Voting has already started today, but perhaps the biggest controversy of the election has just erupted. According to sources inside the Powell and Kemp campaigns, South Carolinians have been hit by last minute push-polling “robo-calls” that are extraordinarily false and negative. Reportedly one message states that Powell fathered a child by a white mistress while his wife was still alive, whereas another message states that Kemp had gay affairs while he worked in San Francisco. Both campaign state that the calls originate from a Bush funded group.

Bush's campaign has issued a press release in which the claim no knowledge of the calls and categorically deny any involvement with the calls if they in fact exist...


From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

I know it was Rove behind the calls. And if that's how he wanted to play the game, he'd soon regret it.


Kemp Wins South Carolina in Heated Three-way Contest

Kemp emerged victorious in the South Carolina Republican Primary, winning the state with 32% of the vote. The especially hard fought contest saw Powell and Bush essentially tied for 2nd with 30% of the vote each. Duncan Hunter was far back in 4th place with 7% of the vote.

As the winner of the state's popular vote Kemp picks up 19 delegates. South Carolina's other 18 delegates are assigned to the winner of each Congressional district. Kemp won 3 of the districts, earning an additional 9 delegates, Bush won 2 districts for 6 delegates, and Powell won one district, earning 3 delegates.


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 02/21

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
129 so far

Kemp - 52
Powell - 30
Bush - 28
Hunter - 4
McCain – 1
Unestimated - 14


Note: Some of the above delegates are pledged and bound by law for the first ballot, such as New Hampshire's and South Carolina's. Other are only estimated and may or may not be legally bound, such as Iowa where their whole process has not played out yet. The “Unestimated” here comes from Hawaii who held their first stage of their caucus the day before Delaware, but they didn't have so much as a straw poll, delegates were chosen to their state convention without officially saying who'd they support, and when they select the national delegates at their state convention they won't even be morally bound to a candidate.

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

South Carolina had given Kemp's campaign a needed boost and had reestablished him as a front-runner along with Powell. Hunter suspended his campaign shortly afterward citing a lack of funds. Therefore it was now a 3 man race with Kemp, Powell, and Bush. Of the 3, Bush was struggling the most as he had not won a state since Iowa and was experiencing unfavorable press coverage due to allegations of negative campaigning in South Carolina.

The robo-call saga was not finished however....

The race next moved on to Michigan and Arizona. McCain's endorsement became extremely sought after, but he declined to endorse anyone, perhaps because he didn't want to ruin his chances of gaining the vice-presidential nomination by backing the wrong candidate...


From the autobiography of Dick Morris -

Ironically, the DWI charge later proved to be entirely accurate. The suggestion that Mrs. Bush had had an abortion wasn't. To me it was a perfectly legitimately move based on the rules that the Bush campaign had established. Apparently others felt differently.


Powell Wins Arizona and Michigan

It proved to be a great day for the Powell campaign yesterday, as he bounced back from his loss in South Carolina to win both Arizona and Michigan. Powell garnered 41% of the vote in Arizona compared to 32% for Kemp and 26% for Bush. Since Arizona is a winner-take-all primary, Powell takes all of Arizona's 30 delegates.

Michigan proved to be a closer contest, but Powell still prevailed with 36% of the vote compared to 33% for Kemp and 31% for Bush. Michigan awards 10 delegates to the winner of the state vote (Powell), and gives 3 delegates to the winner of each one of the 16 congressional districts. Therefore the final delegate distribution for the state is 34 for Powell, 12 for Kemp, and 12 for Bush...

Bush claimed to be the victim of some nasty “robo-calls” from an unknown group thought linked to the Powell campaign...


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 02/24

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
234 so far

Powell - 94
Kemp - 64
Bush – 40
Hunter - 4
McCain – 1
Unestimated – 31

Note: Nevada's 17 delegates are completely unpledged.

[Jasen777]

Powell Drops Top Campaign Aide Dick Morris

A bombshell rocked the political world yesterday as Powell has fired Dick Morris from his campaign staff. Powell made the announcement personally, saying Morris was responsible for the anti-Bush “robo-calls” that were made in Arizona and Michigan. Powell claimed that Morris had no authorization to do so, and in fact, had been specifically told not to. Powell offered an apology to the Bush family...


Kemp Sweeps “Overseas Weekend”

Kemp dominated the little publicized Republican nomination races over the weekend. He won caucuses in Amrican Somoa, Guam, and the Virgin Islands on Saturday, reportedly picking up all of the available delegates. Kemp also won the primary contest in Puerto Rico on Sunday with a dominating 83% of the vote.

It remains to be seen if these wins will provide momentum for Kemp heading into Tuesday's contests...


Powell Wins in Virginia
Washington Goes for Kemp
Bush Takes North Dakota

The 3 remaining Republican candidates split yesterday's contests between them, as disputes over how the primary process should work broke out between Powell and Kemp.

Powell won the Virginia primary with 40% of the vote to 33% for Kemp and 26% for Bush. Since Virginia is a winner take all state, Powell will take all of the state's 56 delegates. Of some controversy was the state's status as an “open primary.” Everyone was allowed to vote, with the requirement that they sign a pledge not to vote in any other party's primary. With Virginia not holding a Democratic primary on the same day, and with Gore appearing to have a lock on the Democratic nomination, it's thought by some that a large number of Democrats and Independents may have voted in the primary.

“We shouldn't have the Republican nomination decided by Democrats,” Kemp said, “We must have a candidate that can provide a true contrasts with Gore or whoever the Democrats nominate.”

Powell also addressed the issue. “We shouldn't make it harder for people to vote for us,” he said, “we should want their votes in the general election, it's certain that we will need them”

Kemp won the Washington primary, with 38% to 32% for Bush and 29% for Powell. Washington's primary only awards 12 of the state's delegates with the other 25 awarded at a later caucus. Rather confusingly, although the state technically has an open primary, only ballots of registered Republicans counted towards the finally tally. “what kind of message does that send,” Powell asked reporters, “to tell people they can come out and vote but their votes won't matter. That's not what the Republican party should be known for.”

Bush, powered by a high evangelical turnout, won the caucus in North Dakota, providing a much needed lift for his campaign. The margin was close however, 37% for Bush to 33% for Powell and 30% for Kemp. Giving that the caucus is expected to award delegates proportionally, this means that Bush will make up little, if any, ground in the national delegate race.


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 03/01

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
347 so far

Powell - 159
Kemp - 101
Bush – 51
Hunter - 4
McCain – 1
Unestimated – 31

[Jasen777]

Powell Big Republican Winner on Super Tuesday
Kemp and Bush Split Conservative Vote
Confusion in Minnesota

Powell did well on Super Tuesday winning primaries in California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, and arguably Minnesota. California alone had 162 delegates, and as a winner-take all state, delivered them all for Powell. This showing gives Powell a strong lead in the overall delegate race.

Kemp managed to pick up wins in Georgia (a huge blow for the Bush campaign), as well as New York, and Washington. The day highlighted what conservatives had feared, the Kemp and Bush would split the conservative vote and allow Powell to win primaries, often with less than 40% of the vote.

Bush suffered a disappointing loss in Georgia, and may not have any Super Tuesday wins at all, depending on how Minnesota turns out...

The Minnesota caucus suffered from considerable confusion yesterday as a Governor Ventura lead effort to turn out independent voters for Powell materialized. The non-binding presidential straw poll resulted in a narrow Powell victory over Bush. However Minnesota also choose delegates to advance to the next step of their caucus process. Some independents and Democrats (Minnesota doesn't hold a Democratic caucus until later), complained they were not told which candidate the delegates supported before they voted, or that precinct captains illegally switched delegates from the actual voting results. Backing these claims is the fact that one precinct turned in two different delegate slates.


From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Delegates won on Super Tuesday

State – (total delegates) – Powell/Kemp/Bush

California – (162) – 162/0/0
Connecticut – (25) – 25/0/0
Georgia - (54) – 3/39/12
Maine – (14) – 6/5/3
Maryland – (31) – 19/9/3
Massachusetts (37) – 37/0/0
Minnesota (34) - unknown
Missouri (35) – 35/0/0
New York (101) – 41/52/8
Ohio (69) – 36/15/18
Rhode Island – (14) – 14/0/0
Vermont - (12) – 12/0/0
Washington – (25) – 6/14/5

Super Tuesday broke very well for Colin Powell. Several states were friendly territory for him, and he also picked up some unexpected places (Missouri, Ohio) due to conservative vote splitting between Kemp and Bush. Further, Powell managed to win all of the states that awarded all of their delegates to the overall state winner. So in many of the states he won, he got all of the delegates, but in the states Kemp won, Kemp didn't. In California Powell gained 162 delegates, but in New York, despite winning, Kemp only gained 11 net delegates on Powell.

The big loser was Bush, who had failed to win a single state, except perhaps obtaining a majority of Minnesota precinct delegates (though the state party had some problems to sort out and could face lawsuits). Pressure had been on Bush since he lost in South Carolina to clear the field so that Kemp could have a clear shot at Powell. Bush had strong support among the evangelical wing of the party. They loved him, but they also liked Kemp, if not quite as much. But the result in Georgia showed that they had already started to trickle away from Bush to Kemp, seeing him as the one who could stop Powell from winning the nomination.

AP Republican Delegate Estimation 03/01

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
960 so far

Powell - 555
Kemp - 235
Bush – 100
Hunter - 4
McCain – 1
Unestimated – 65

Note: Minnesota's delegates are added to “unestimated.” And yes, Washington has two separate contests that award delegates.

[Jasen777]

Bush Drops Out

George Bush has announced that he is suspending his campaign. “After long conversations with my advisers I have been forced to conclude that there is no viable path to the nomination for me,” Bush said at a press conference yesterday. Bush had started the campaign with a lot of promise, winning the Iowa Caucus, but has struggles since then, splitting the conservative vote with Jack Kemp...


From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

The week of Super Tuesday proved to be a critical in the Republican nomination race (though not decisive as such as it was in the Democratic race). Powell had a great day on Super Tuesday and established a substantial lead in the delegate race. But his campaign had to be worried that the upcoming states would not be as favorable for him...

Sharing the news with Super Tuesday was the Dot-com Bubble collapse, which threaten an economic crisis. This likely lead to more support for Kemp, as he was viewed as the most knowledgeable candidate on economic issues.

An event that would prove to be an even greater benefit to Kemp was Bush's exit from the race. Bush had felt pressure from the Republican establishment to get out of the race every since his defeat in South Carolina, but he had been hoping to get by Super Tuesday and compete for the possibly more favorable states that would come after. Losing Georgia on Super Tuesday to Kemp was the last straw, however and Rove later stated that Bush was told by several sources that continuing any further would be the end to any national ambition Bush may have.

Bush's exit would finally give the conservative anti-Powell vote a single candidate to rally around. But had it taken too long?


Kemp sweeps “Mountain Friday”

Kemp's week improved greatly as he swept the contests in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Helped by Bush's exit and by more favorable states Kemp has show that Powell has not yet wrapped up the nomination...


Kemp Dominates Powell on Southern Tuesday

Since Colin Powell's impressive showing on Super Tuesday a week ago, the race has now turned completely around and Jack Kemp is now riding a wave of momentum. Kemp won all 6 states available yesterday: Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas.

Evangelical voters dominated the turnout in every state and were reluctant to vote for the pro-choice Powell. That was not too surprising giving the make up of the Republican Party in the Southern Tuesday states, and was foreshadowed by the scattered pro-life demonstrations that occasionally accompanied Powell at his campaign events...

The wins put Kemp into a virtual tie with Powell in the delegate race.


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 03/15

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
1368 so far

Powell - 600
Kemp - 598
Bush – 100
Hunter - 4
McCain – 1
Unestimated – 65

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

Kemp's remarkable comeback after Super Tuesday ensured that the race would become quite prolonged, and even raised the possibility of a contested convention if he could not continue the near delegate shutout of Powell he had been achieving. Republican leaders wanted to avoid a contested convention if at all possible, and would vastly prefer for Kemp (or even Powell if it came to that) to win an outright delegate majority. Failing that it was hoped a deal could be reached before there would be an actual floor fight at the convention. Kemp was starting to look like the favorite, but Powell had firmly denied interest in the vice-presidential nomination. A deal may not be so easy to make.

Pundits, party heavyweights, and even the candidates themselves were scrambling to find out where the candidates actually stood in terms of delegates. It was not as easy to do as might be wished. Several states, like Iowa, had a multistage caucus process that hadn't actually decided anything yet, thought the AP was still estimating it as if it had. Bush had won the vote in Iowa, but the precinct level delegates would not necessarily be bound by that, even if Bush had stayed in the race. And several states' delegates would be completely unbound, even at the national convention.

Powell's campaign had been rocked by the depths of his defeats in the Mountain and Southern day primaries, but vowed to fight on. It was looking to be an uphill climb, as Powell remained completely unacceptable to religious conservative voters, and for the first time, Powell had been passed in the national polls among likely Republican voters. Efforts to reach out to independent and even Democratic voters in those states where they would be allowed to vote had previously been sporadic on the part of Powell's campaign, but it now became intense and his best chance for victory. Some Democratic leaders, with their race already wrapped up, stated publicly that it might be a good idea to cross lines to vote for Powell in the primaries in order to create chaos and hopefully see the Republican Party explode at the convention. The strategy risked even further alienating Republican base voters from Powell however...


Powell Wins Illinois

In somewhat of a surprise, Colin Powell managed to reverse recent losses to win the Illinois Primary over Jack Kemp by a margin of 53% to 46%. Independents and Democrats made up 40% of the voters and gave Powell a big edge in the state. Powell said that the result shows that he is still the frontrunner for the nomination.

Kemp downplayed the result, noting that the vote would have no impact on the Illinois' slate of delegates to the national convention...


North Dakota Holds State Convention, Expected to Back Kemp

North Dakota held the final stage of the convention process last night. Bush won the vote in the first stage, but delegates to their state convention were unbound. The slate of delegates they elected to the national convention are just “morally” bound, but are thought to back Kemp.


Powell Wins Wisconsin, Kemp Triumphs in Pennsylvania

Behind another impressive turnout of Independents and Democrats, Powell managed a hard fought win in Wisconsin over Kemp, 51% to 48%. Kemp will however pick up delegates as well from the state since Wisconsin awards a majority of their delegates by congressional district.

Kemp won by a more convincing margin in Pennsylvania, 62% to 36%. The closed primary lead to a more conservative turnout than was the case in Wisconsin. Like Illinois however, Pennsylvania has what is know as a “loophole” primary, and the vote will have no legal bearing on who Pennsylvania’s delegates will support at the national convention.


Hunter Endorses Kemp

Jack Kemp has picked up an endorsement from former candidate Duncan Hunter. Hunter's delegates are now expected to back Kemp...

John McCain has released his only delegate to vote his conscience.


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 04/05

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
1557 so far

Powell - 622
Kemp - 622
Bush – 95
Unestimated – 218


Well with all of these unbound delegates, it's not looking good for a clear majority winner here...

[Jasen777]

Pat Buchanan Declares Independent Candidacy for President

Pat Buchanan declared his candidacy for President last night, saying that the country needed a better option than Gore, Powell, or Kemp. “The Republican Party has forgotten the common working man and is being taken over by those with radical social views,” Buchanan said in his speech. “I stand with the majority of the American people who support traditional values and an economic policy that benefits Americans first.”

Buchanan said that he can appeal to the silent center of the American electorate. He also announced that his running mate would be Alan Keyes.

Though he is running as an Independent, it seems likely that the Constitution Party will endorse Buchanan.


From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

After the April 4th contests, there wasn't another major vote (there were intermediately caucus conventions in some states) until May 2nd. With the delegate situation looking increasingly muddled, the idea of a brokered convention started to look like an almost inevitability. Both candidates looked to Bush for an endorsement, but he was holding off, likely waiting until he could be certain someone could grant him the vice-presidential nomination in exchange.

Powell and Kemp had a couple of debates in the dead month, though not much new was revealed by the candidates, and the debates were largely reckoned draws...

The contest was starting to become something of a negative public relations event for the Republican Party, as the media seemed to love the story line of a divided party tearing itself apart. The general public was also learning far more about the delegate section process than before and seemed to become put off by the various rules, especially loophole type votes in which the public vote had nothing to do with the delegate allocation...


Kemp Wins in North Carolina and Indiana, Powell Wins D.C.

Republicans voters returned to polls yesterday after a month break and have continued the series of split decisions. Despite fears that they could be overwhelmed by independent voters, Kemp's campaign captured the open primaries in Indiana and North Carolina by safe margins of 13% and 24% respectively. Kemp will receive the majority of delegates from those states, however since Indiana awards delegates partly by congressional district, and North Carolina awards delegates proportionally, Powell will also pick up some delegates from those states. In addition some of Indiana's delegates will be selected by a later convention and will be unpledged.

Also yesterday was the Washington D.C. Primary, which Powell won over Kemp 55% to 43%. Powell will win all 15 of the available delegates.


Kemp makes case for nomination, Wins Nebraska and West Virginia

Kemp made a strong statement that he should be the Republican nominee yesterday by winning primary contests in Nebraska and West Virginia. Kemp is estimated to have won all of the delegates from the 2 states, though many of them will be officially unpledged.


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 05/10

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority
1729 so far

Kemp - 729
Powell - 662
Bush – 95
Unestimated – 243

[Jasen777]

From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

By mid-may the course that the nomination contest would take had become clear. With the large number of unpledged delegates, and with Bush still in control of a smaller bloc, neither Kemp or Powell would be able to maintain a pledged (even if only “morally”) majority.

Kemp was slowly inching ahead in pledged delegates and stayed ahead in national polls (among Republicans), but Powell vowed to fight until the end. Powell managed wins in Oregon, Montana, and New Jersey, but they were overshadowed by Kemp's wins in Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Alabama, New Mexico, and South Dakota (as well as victories in state conventions in Iowa, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Nebraska). That left the final delegate pledged delegate estimation as follows...


AP Republican Delegate Estimation 06/28

2010 Total / 1006 Needed For Majority

Kemp - 947
Powell - 729
Bush – 83
Unestimated – 251


Kemp to be Republican Nominee, Powell Concedes

At a press conference last night Republican candidate Colin Powell conceded the race. Powell thanked all of his campaign staff and volunteers for their effort, but admitted he wasn't going to win. “Jack Kemp will be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party,” he said. Powell later stated that he had no plans to contest the nomination at the convention and that he had no interest in the vice-presidential nomination slot. This cleared the way for the Republicans to avoid a convention fight, but the news was not all good for Republicans. When asked if he would endorse Kemp in the general election, Powell said he had not yet decided whether to endorse anyone.


From: Chaos Renewed – The Presidential Election of 2000

The final state conventions saw a decisive shift in delegates in Kemp's favor, though he still feel short of a clear majority. Though not even all of his estimated delegates were legally bound to Kemp on the first ballot, he had the support of most of the Republican establishment and it was clear he would win any convention floor fight concerning the nomination. Therefore Powell's concession was likely the right thing to do and it eliminated any doubt as to the outcome as well as any incentive for Kemp to work out a deal with Bush.

Nevertheless, the Republican Party was still in a bit of a tough situation. Voter resentment over Dole's House handed victory in the last election could make it a difficult sale for Kemp in the general election, especially if they did not have Powell's full support. There was also a need to address the media narrative that the Republican Party was in a full scale civil war between conservatives and the Powell lead moderate faction. There was some risk of moderate Republican being alienated from the party, but overall that media driven story was overrated. A significant part of Powell's votes was from his personal popularity due to his military career and his appeal to independents. It would be a mistake to attribute all of his support to the moderate wing of the Republican Party. Of course the party could use both his popularity and appeal to independents.

Powell was uninterested in the vice-presidential nomination, and signs were emerging that he had grown quite frustrated with the politics in general. If not Powell, then the obvious pick for the VP slot would be Bush. He was popular with the base, would provide regional balance to the ticket, and had a kind of folksy charm. There was some bad blood between Kemp and Bush due to the primaries, but that it was the kind of thing that is often overcome in politics. There was also the question if Bush would take the spot. If he thought Kemp unlikely to win, sitting out and running for the top spot for himself again in '04 may be the best move.

But would a Bush VP pick help Republicans with their potential issue with independent and centrist voters? The last two elections had seen independent candidates gain a large share of the popular vote. The bloc appeared up for grabs this time and would likely determine the election. And, with all due respect to Buchanan, there was no independent candidate this time who would likely appeal to that group. So the Republicans had to consider a more moderate selection then Bush, who could hopefully appeal to the political center more, heal the rift with the moderate wing of the party, and help gain Powell's enthusiastic support. But if they did, especially if they chose a pro-choice candidate (as both Powell and Perot had been) and a pro-choice toleration plank in the platform was considered, there could be chaos at the convention, and Buchanan could threaten from the right...


Aggregate Presidential Poll 07/14

Gore (D) - 42%
Kemp (R) - 33%
Nader (G) - 5%
Buchanan (I/C)- 4%
Browne (L) - 2%
Unsure/Other - 13%