WI Gabriel Bethlen succed at conquering Vienna in 1619

[Valdemar I]

While Emperor Ferdinand was occupied with the Bohemian rebellion of 1618, Bethlen led his armies into Royal Hungary in August 1619 and occupied the town of Kassa (Košice) in September, where his Protestant supporters declared him "head" of Hungary and protector of the Protestants. He soon won over the entirety of present-day Slovakia, even securing the capital of Royal Hungary, Pressburg (Bratislava), in October, where the palatine even handed over the Crown of St Stephen to Bethlen. Bethlen's troops joined with the troops of the Czech and Moravian estates (led by Count Jindrich Matyas Thurn), but they failed to conquer Vienna in November – Bethlen was forced to leave Austria after being attacked by George Druget and Polish mercenaries (lisowczycy) in Upper Hungary. Although he had conquered most of Royal Hungary, Bethlen was not averse to a peace, nor to a preliminary suspension of hostilities, and negotiations were opened at the conquered towns of Pressburg (Bratislava), Kassa (Košice) and Besztercebánya (Banská Bystrica). Initially, they led to nothing because Bethlen insisted on including the Czechs in the peace, but finally a truce was concluded in January 1620 under which Bethlen received 13 counties in the east of Royal Hungary. On 20 August 1620 the estates elected him King of Hungary at the Diet in Neosolium with the consent of the Ottomans, but Bethlen refused to accept the crown because he wanted to reconcile with the Habsburgs and reunite Hungary. However, the war with the Habsburgs resumed in Royal Hungary and Lower Austria in September.

What if Gabriel Bethlen and his allies succed in taking Vienna could it force the Habsburg to negoatiate a treaty and cut the 30YW short? If we see a peace treaty, the Habsburg would likely keep Croatia, while Gabriel Bethlen became king of Hungary, Frederick V would become king of Bohemia, but to not have two electorial votes, Pfalz would lose it status as Electorate, Austria or another of the Habsburg possesions could receive it instead securing the imperial throne for the Habsburgs. Of course the Habsburg would likely try their best to reghain their lost possesions, I could see the war restart with Gabriels death in 1629.

[Gulag]

What if Gabriel Bethlen and his allies succed in taking Vienna could it force the Habsburg to negoatiate a treaty and cut the 30YW short? If we see a peace treaty, the Habsburg would likely keep Croatia, while Gabriel Bethlen became king of Hungary, Frederick V would become king of Bohemia, but to not have two electorial votes, Pfalz would lose it status as Electorate, Austria or another of the Habsburg possesions could receive it instead securing the imperial throne for the Habsburgs. Of course the Habsburg would likely try their best to reghain their lost possesions, I could see the war restart with Gabriels death in 1629.

Now this is something I'd like to see worked out further - if Frederick becomes the proper king of Bohemia instead of just the Winter King, would this force the Protestant Union to actually do something?

Also, wouldn't a Protestant Hungary and weakened Hapsburgs throw the balance of power way over to the Protestants?

[Pascal]

Well, if this end the conflict in 1619, there probably wont be any real 30 Years War at all. Or at least it will break out 10 years later, as Valdemar said with Bethlens death. Of course, the Ausgburg Religious peace with "eius regio cuius religio" was inherently instable, so something will eventually happen. Speaking of which, what would the religious situation be in Bohemia?

[Nikephoros]

What kind of army did he have?

The Ottomans couldn't take Vienna, why would he?

I realize you're having him take the city and go on from there, but I don't see how he could take the city.

[Valdemar I]

Well, if this end the conflict in 1619, there probably wont be any real 30 Years War at all. Or at least it will break out 10 years later, as Valdemar said with Bethlens death. Of course, the Ausgburg Religious peace with "eius regio cuius religio" was inherently instable, so something will eventually happen. Speaking of which, what would the religious situation be in Bohemia?

Well Frederick was Calvinist, but the local Germans was mostly High Lutherans, while the Czechs was mostly Hussites which at this point are close enough to Lutherans that it makes little different, Frederick aren't strong enough to push Calvinism through so he may adopt a Brandenburgian solution where Calvinism and Lutheranism both are official religion, it will likely mean that only the court and some of the burghers and knights adopt Calvinism, while the rest of the population stay Lutheran. It was stable enough in Brandenburg, likely because the top down structure of Lutherans make rather loyal to the state as long as it represent them.

I don't think Bethlens death will restart the war, it will more likely turn into a Austrian-Transsylvanian War (with the Ottoman having a good chance for joining the Transsylvanians) in Hungary

[Valdemar I]

What kind of army did he have?

The Ottomans couldn't take Vienna, why would he?

I realize you're having him take the city and go on from there, but I don't see how he could take the city.

The Ottoman failure to take the city in 1529 was to large degree a result of to long transportation routes and population which weould give up, Gabriel has a stronger position in Hungary, the Habsburg fight a civil war, and the Austrian estates are Lutheran at this point and extremely hostile to the Habsburg attempt to deal with the Bohemians Protestants, so they may open Viennas gates and join Hungarian-Bohemian revolt. Quite likely we see them forcing a point in the treaty which recognises Austria-Styria-Carinthia-Carniola right to practice Lutheranism. While the Habsburg will try to get rid of that again they will likely with the stronger position of Protestantism be forced to accept it.

[Pascal]

Actually, "Calvinist Rulers over a Lutheran population" was really very frequent in the HRE. Hesse-Kassel and some Nassovian lines, too, though in the former case the conversion didnt happen without problems... so yes, that could theoretically work, but I was mostly thinking about Catholic-Protestant relations, less than Calvinist-Lutheran relations. I think Austria might want to get some concessions through in that issue, it simply seems like an ideal issue to get compromises in as the opponent side cared about another thing primarily (that being the seperation of Bohemia from Austria and the rights of the Bohemian estates). So the peace treaty might guarantee the Catholic Church in Bohemia and its property, for example.

/EDIT: heh. Didnt see your second point. It would be ironic if Habsburg pushes such a point through in Bohemia while the Austrian nobles push a reverse of that point through for Austria, freedom for the Lutheran creed there. Theres goes Eius Regio Cuius Religio in large parts of the Empire...

[Valdemar I]

Actually, "Calvinist Rulers over a Lutheran population" was really very frequent in the HRE. Hesse-Kassel and some Nassovian lines, too, though in the former case the conversion didnt happen without problems... so yes, that could theoretically work, but I was mostly thinking about Catholic-Protestant relations, less than Calvinist-Lutheran relations. I think Austria might want to get some concessions through in that issue, it simply seems like an ideal issue to get compromises in as the opponent side cared about another thing primarily (that being the seperation of Bohemia from Austria and the rights of the Bohemian estates). So the peace treaty might guarantee the Catholic Church in Bohemia and its property, for example.

That would be quite ironic, espcially because of the relative rareness of the Catholics in Bohemia, we're going to see a Catholic Church in Bohemia with vast possesions, but few practicers. But I think Frederick will push hard on not gurantees the Church lands, while he may accept freedom of religion for Catholics. The estates may protest but he can use the new gained land to bribe them to accept it.

/EDIT: heh. Didnt see your second point. It would be ironic if Habsburg pushes such a point through in Bohemia while the Austrian nobles push a reverse of that point through for Austria, freedom for the Lutheran creed there. Theres goes Eius Regio Cuius Religio in large parts of the Empire...

The doctrine was less universal than we tend to think today, in the pre-30YW Catholic was more or less forced to accept Lutheran freedom of religion, which was why they so badly needed the counter-reformation, of course Lutheran rulers push the doctrine through to full extent, which was why Lutherqanism grew so rigid and doctrinal, that princes with interest in theology began to adopt Calvinism instead.

Here we will likely see Lutheranism in Bohemia grow more flexible to deal with the Calvinist and Catholics.