1898: What if the Anti-Reformist Coup in China had failed and the 100 Days Reforms had lasted more than 100 days?

[Maverick]

I love the fact that you can make a title here as long as you please.

Imagine if you please Qing China in 1898, dominated by the Manchu Dynasty of the Aisin Gioro Clan since 1644, and since the 1860s battered by civil wars ranging from Muslim Revolts in the West to the Taiping in the South and the Opium Wars with Britain, the political squabbling between reformists and reactionary conservatives, the half-successful half failed self-strengthening movement and the definitive failure of the 1895 War with Japan.

In 1898, a coup was planned by the Reactionary anti-reformists to put an end to Emperor Guanxu's Hundred Days Reform and of course it succeeded.

Let's say that, for instance, General Yuan Shikai, who knew about the Coup and knew about the counter-measures against the coup planned by the Emperor, sides with the reformists rather than with the counter-reformists.

Yuan Shikai thus opposes the coup, the opportunity is seized to crush the opposition and get rid of the Dowager Empress Cixi, and the Guanxu Emperor continues with his reforms.

Would anyone care to venture what's next in this little scenario?

[Straha]

Interesting but likely not _that_ much of a determining factor differentiating from OTL. Things would largely remain the same.

Japan likely doesn't get away with directly annexing Korea(a stabler, more modern china wouldn't let Japan pull off anything more than turning into a puppet state), The pacific front in WWII is averted and we have an Emperor in Beijing today.

China would likely still be an authoritarian regime, that'd be somewhat like OTL's PRC(state capitalist and politically repressive) but richer(no maoist period), if not a bit more liberal but would avoid the disasters of the warlord era or great leap forward. There's a decent chance it goes democratic in the 80s/90s/00s, though.

Japan would have Taiwan, south sakhalin, the pacific islands it ganked from the germans and north new guinea even today and likely avoids the militarist interlude(no korean takeover to show as a success).

Korea? It'd be an authoritarian monarchy, and likely by now resembles a bit richer version of Thailand. More populous than OTL Korea because of no japanese occupation, WWII or korean war. Also, a more conservative regime and poorer nation.

Colonialism in east asia survives a bit longer without the pacific war, but still fails not too much later than OTL.

[general_tiu]

I have read a timeline in AH.com by Onkel Willie about what happen if the Hundred Days Reform succeeds. Instead of Yuan siding with the reformists, Yuan was struck by tuberculosis before he could take a side. Therefore, Cixi's conservative clique is in trouble once Guangxu found them out. China then undergoes its version of Meiji and by the year 2000 is the premier world power.