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View Full Version : No Ottomans: effect on development of Muslim Middle East and North Africa


Alex
09-23-2010, 08:29 AM
It seems to me that the chief difference between the development of Western Europe and Middle East/North Africa between 1500 and 1900 was that Western Europe developed a concept of nation-state, while Middle East/North Africa remained with older concepts of dynastic states and empires. Much of that can be put on the shoulders of the dominant power of the Muslim world of the time - the Ottoman Empire, which took over lands home to a multitude of ethnic and religious groups united only through the infrastructure enforced from above by the Osmanli dynasty.

I would argue that a single, massive empire is perhaps more prone to long-term stagnation, if only because much of strife within such an empire is internal. A traditional nation-state may define itself in opposition to other nation-states, creating a unique national identity that creates more stability, and, perhaps, more of an incentive for the government to actively develop the entire state, as opposed to only developing lands and territories of the core group. It is worth noting that Russia, another imperial power of the time, tended to put most of its efforts into developing Russian heartland while ignoring largely non-ethnic-Russian provinces or using them for resources.

Additionally, while a nation-state may have an empire of its own (i.e. Spanish, Dutch, British, etc colonial empires), a nation state tends to be more compact, and, when combined with greater population densities in Western Europe, competition between nation-states invites developments in commerce, economics, manufacturing, engineering, and military fields. An empire, on the other hand, may only have some territories that are competitive (usually the empire's heartland, most frequently dominated by the empire's dominant/privileged group - European Russia for Russians, Turkic Anatolia for Ottomans, European nation-state for Britain, France, Germany, Spain, etc). While European colonial empires were generally far-flung and not directly connected to the "heartland", a more traditional empire is different in that respect, because the rest of its territory is directly connected to its core lands, which means the empire's main forces are often forced to protect outlying borders, communication can be more difficult, and a degree of decentralization becomes almost necessary in order to run it. That can be a dangerous proposition when the empire is faced with sufficiently significant unrest or enemy incursions, leading the empire's leadership to keep the provinces underdeveloped (so that challengers to the Imperial leadership cannot arise, and so that no contender to the throne could use dissent to forment a power base).

This brings up the point I wanted to address. With the Ottoman overlordship of Muslim Middle East and North Africa, the Ottomans exhibited every symptom of the empire, resulting in relative underdevelopment of most provinces (and the developed provinces were generally developed with the purpose of becoming cash cows, like Egypt). Plundering the provinces made the heartland (Anatolia/Turkey in this case) wealthier, but it also retarded its development in terms of self-sufficiency - why develop for self-sufficiency when you get everything you need from the provinces? And upon the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, much of the Middle East and North Africa found themselves decades, if not centuries behind neighboring European states in development.

Now, let's presume the Ottoman dynasty is stillborn. It does not mean that there is no Turkic state in Anatolia and possibly the Balkans - only that this state is not as powerful as in OTL, and has only limited territory. Perhaps this state, in itself, is ethnic-based as opposed to dynasty-based, and as a result is much more compact.

Without the larger Ottoman Empire, how do you think political situation in Muslim world* looks? Do you think the Muslim states may have potential for greater social and industrial development without the Ottoman overlordship? Will there be more of a nation-state building as the main differentiation factor between different dynastic groups? What do you think the effects on Europe will be?


* Note that I am deliberately ignoring Muslim states outside of Europe/Middle East. I am specifically interested in potential development of territories that were part of the Ottoman Empire without the Ottoman behemoth in the picture.

EDIT: I'd be interested to hear Abdul's and Hash's opinions on this, and on the role of Ottomans in the overall technological, social, and economic development of the Middle East.

Ran Exilis
09-23-2010, 09:03 AM
Now, let's presume the Ottoman dynasty is stillborn. It does not mean that there is no Turkic state in Anatolia and possibly the Balkans - only that this state is not as powerful as in OTL, and has only limited territory. Perhaps this state, in itself, is ethnic-based as opposed to dynasty-based, and as a result is much more compact.

Without the larger Ottoman Empire, how do you think political situation in Muslim world* looks? Do you think the Muslim states may have potential for greater social and industrial development without the Ottoman overlordship? Will there be more of a nation-state building as the main differentiation factor between different dynastic groups? What do you think the effects on Europe will be?

There's something you're overlooking Alex: by itself, the absence of an Ottoman or other Anatolian Turkish empire does not mean that there will not be a major Muslim empire that more or less unifies the Middle East.

Case in point; take a look at the OTL Safavids. Especially the early Safavids.

And now imagine what would have happened if there wouldn't have been a major power like the OTL Ottomans to keep them out of Syria and Anatolia...

Such a scenario could very well lead to a Muslim Persian empire that approaches the Achaemenid Empire in size and extent, which would have huge effects on the development of the Middle East and the Muslim world in general.

Such a scenario would also have considerable knock-on effects on the Mediterranean, btw - such an 'über-Safavid'-empire would be far less interested in the Mediterranean, and would therefore not have nearly as much of a Mediterranean navy as the OTL Ottomans. Consequently, Spain's expanding influence in the western and central Mediterranean will go largely unchallenged (at least compared to OTL).

Alex
09-23-2010, 09:12 AM
There's something you're overlooking Alex: by itself, the absence of an Ottoman or other Anatolian Turkish empire does not mean that there will not be a major Muslim empire that more or less unifies the Middle East.

Case in point; take a look at the OTL Safavids. Especially the early Safavids.

And now imagine what would have happened if there wouldn't have been a major power like the OTL Ottomans to keep them out of Syria and Anatolia...

Such a scenario could very well lead to a Muslim Persian empire that approaches the Achaemenid Empire in size and extent, which would have huge effects on the development of the Middle East and the Muslim world in general.

Such a scenario would also have considerable knock-on effects on the Mediterranean, btw - such an 'über-Safavid'-empire would be far less interested in the Mediterranean, and would therefore not have nearly as much of a Mediterranean navy as the OTL Ottomans. Consequently, Spain's expanding influence in the western and central Mediterranean will go largely unchallenged (at least compared to OTL).

Hmm, good point, especially since I am not as familiar with the Safavids. I would presume that Safavids would probably stop at Egypt, but since the wealthiest lands in the Muslim Middle East happen to be in the Levant and Egypt, that would still be an empire rather than any incentive to form nation-states.

Is there any situation that may help us avoid the "single Muslim empire controlling most of the Middle East" scenario? I am specifically interested in seeing how Muslim Middle East may develop without such an empire.

Valdemar I
09-23-2010, 09:31 AM
Hmm, good point, especially since I am not as familiar with the Safavids. I would presume that Safavids would probably stop at Egypt, but since the wealthiest lands in the Muslim Middle East happen to be in the Levant and Egypt, that would still be an empire rather than any incentive to form nation-states.

Is there any situation that may help us avoid the "single Muslim empire controlling most of the Middle East" scenario? I am specifically interested in seeing how Muslim Middle East may develop without such an empire.

I have a hard time seing it not develop, the middle east lack regionalist movements, it easy to conquer for any army with superior mobility and even a minimum of popular support, you need a religeous split to ensure the devlopment of several states.

Alex
09-23-2010, 10:14 AM
I have a hard time seing it not develop, the middle east lack regionalist movements, it easy to conquer for any army with superior mobility and even a minimum of popular support, you need a religeous split to ensure the devlopment of several states.

There is, however, potential for several splits. Not only the traditional Shi'a/Sunni rivalry, but perhaps a different movement in Sufism that would make it a viable state ideology/religion? Maybe some breakaway Christian states (Cilicia and Ethiopia survived there for some time, so perhaps we can see some states clinging to Christian identity), or perhaps even a messianic movement that grows more popular than OTL...

I guess where I am getting bogged down is the question, is the Middle East pretty much doomed to fall under the hell of a major empire, thus stunting its development? Geography alone cannot be the answer - Egypt can provide a good defensive position along with fertile agricultural area; Persia was perhaps the only power that had beginnings of nation-state throughout the time (due to nascent self-differentiation of Persians as "not-Arabs", prominent to this day, and creating ethnicity-based identity); there was potential for smaller but viable Armenian and Turkish states in Anatolia; there was potential for separate state identities in Palestine and the Levant, especially if you consider Cyprus holding out as the last remnant of Crusader states for a while longer without the Ottomans...

Valdemar I
09-23-2010, 10:28 AM
There is, however, potential for several splits. Not only the traditional Shi'a/Sunni rivalry, but perhaps a different movement in Sufism that would make it a viable state ideology/religion? Maybe some breakaway Christian states (Cilicia and Ethiopia survived there for some time, so perhaps we can see some states clinging to Christian identity), or perhaps even a messianic movement that grows more popular than OTL...

I guess where I am getting bogged down is the question, is the Middle East pretty much doomed to fall under the hell of a major empire, thus stunting its development? Geography alone cannot be the answer - Egypt can provide a good defensive position along with fertile agricultural area; Persia was perhaps the only power that had beginnings of nation-state throughout the time (due to nascent self-differentiation of Persians as "not-Arabs", prominent to this day, and creating ethnicity-based identity); there was potential for smaller but viable Armenian and Turkish states in Anatolia; there was potential for separate state identities in Palestine and the Levant, especially if you consider Cyprus holding out as the last remnant of Crusader states for a while longer without the Ottomans...

Egypts are rather weird incredible rich, centralised, but it kept being overrun and vassalised by other Muslim groups. I would rather say that Egypt aren't that defensible and it inability to raise it own armies was it problem. Maybe a more feudal structure with heavy infigthing would help it was what created modern Europe.

But most likely if the Ottomans failed Egypt and Syria would be unified, while Mesopotamia would be part of Iran and Anatlia would be split between Turkish, Greek and Armenian statelets. Cyprus and Rhodos would likely have survived as crusade remnants, while on the mailand someone has to come on the top, likely some neo-Byzantic state (like Nicaea) with a strong base in Anatolia.

Alex
09-23-2010, 10:31 AM
Egypts are rather weird incredible rich, centralised, but it kept being overrun and vassalised by other Muslim groups. I would rather say that Egypt aren't that defensible and it inability to raise it own armies was it problem. Maybe a more feudal structure with heavy infigthing would help it was what created modern Europe.

But most likely if the Ottomans failed Egypt and Syria would be unified, while Mesopotamia would be part of Iran and Anatlia would be split between Turkish, Greek and Armenian statelets. Cyprus and Rhodos would likely have survived as crusade remnants, while on the mailand someone has to come on the top, likely some neo-Byzantic state (like Nicaea) with a strong base in Anatolia.

What do you think the social, cultural, economic, and technological development of this alt-Middle East would have been? I wonder if it could have become more competitive vis-a-vis European states in the long run.

Valdemar I
09-23-2010, 11:12 AM
What do you think the social, cultural, economic, and technological development of this alt-Middle East would have been? I wonder if it could have become more competitive vis-a-vis European states in the long run.

Time was against them, while the climate of the Middle East had been better for civilisation for millennials, at this point it turned around and would have done so even without the discovery of America, there was a growing west and north European urbanisation and the wet rich soil of Europe began to deliver it promisses thanks to agricultural advancements France, Britain and Germany (in this context it includes the Netherlands) was turning into the intellectual and industrial centre of westen Euroasia.

But in the end I think they would still be better off, while people romantise the Ottomans, their structures created a inward looking and in many ways social rigid* society. The Balkan and Anatolian statelets will have to be outward looking to ensure they stay on the top and aren't overrun by their neighbours, creating much more dynamic social structures and a society much more open to fundamental changes, rather than just paint the house.

Syria-Egypt and Greater Persia on the other hand will likely end up as a bigger richer version of Persia in OTL, they will have few threats to their survival before modern day and little incentiment to reform, but they will likely be hit early enough by the Europeans that they will avoid colonisation.

*Ironic for all it social mobility, which was in many way greater than the rigid class societies which dominated Germany and France.

Nikephoros
09-25-2010, 10:31 AM
Thanks for the input. I'm currently researching for a "No Ottomans" timeline. I'm not ruling out the possibility of a "Turkish" Empire, but if the Ottomans don't rise, I fail to see any other Turkish Oghullar rising to such a height, even if they manage to seize the Balkans.