WI Japan stays out of WWII

[Da Pwnzlord]

For whatever reason, Japan doesn't go to war with the Allies. What happens after the war is over? How does Japan fit into the Cold War? It will probably eventually be driven out of China, but if China goes red like OTL, does Japan get U.S. aid like OTL as a bastion against Communism?

[Chris]

Well, that changes history as without Pearl Harbour the US might not get involved in the war.

Chris

[Filipe Augusto]

What happens after the war is over?

Depends on what happens to China.

CHINA CONQUERED: Things will probrably get tense regardless. The British and the Soviets might fear for their land near Japanese-controlled China. We might see the British reinforce Hong Kong out of fear. USA might express their clear dislike of a imperialist power in the pacific, but may be unable to do anything about it for now due to fears of the USSR and possibly due to the national desire to merely rest after the war.

I think we might see a limited war between Britain and Japan over Hong Kong and Singapore, perhaps involving Japenese-backed violent Indian independency. I'm betting on a Japanese victory, their carrier-based fleet has been show to defeat the British fairly well.

Otherwise, we might see NATO trying to get on Japan's good graces as a way to circle the USSR with enemy forces. If this happens, we're going to see super-paranoid Stalin, and might end up with WWIII or a limited Great Asian War with Japan and Puppets fighting USSR and communist insurgence groups in China, Korea and Manchuria. If this happens, I bet on a USSR victory.

CHINA LOST: First thing is governament change. The Army is going to want someone's head on a plate. We might either get a even worse militarist governament, or a moderate governament intent on healing relations with China and USA.

How does Japan fit into the Cold War? It will probably eventually be driven out of China, but if China goes red like OTL, does Japan get U.S. aid like OTL as a bastion against Communism?

Depending on governament and if China falls, Japan may either be a "useful devil" or a ressentful ally somewhat mistrusted, but necessary in the struggle agains the USS.

They're probrably going to get aid if they lose China. If a militarist governament takes power, then Japan is going to be the armed wing of the eastern capitalists. If moderates take power, then its going to be very similar to OTL's economic plans.

With China, I doubt it, USA helped even colonial insurgents on THEIR FREAKING' ALLIES COLONIES ("Thanks very much, USA", said Portugal), they're not going to help a imperialist power they don't like. We might even see NATO trying to push the Warsaw Pact and the Greater Eastern Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere into a mutual war of destruction where neither side wins, both lose and the West picks the pieces.

[gtrof]

Originally Posted by Chris

Well, that changes history as without Pearl Harbour the US might not get involved in the war.

Chris

The situation in the Atlantic though was clearly heading to a breaking point. USN ships were attacking German U-Boats and being attacked in turn. Hitler's mental state probably leads him to either ordering more U.S. ships sunk, or going for a deceleration of war on the USA. So I think its quite reasonable to assume that the U.S. enters the war sometime in 1942.

Without Japan, does this lead to a faster Western Allied victory?

[BillHicksRules]

Japan was in WW2 before the Allies and the Germans so it is not really a matter of "staying out" more a matter of not getting further involved.

Most historians of note date the "start" of WW2 to be the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War (July 7th 1937).

[Chris]

Lets assume, for the sake of argument, that the Bismarck accidentally sinks a US battleship in early 1941. There were, IIRC, two older US battleships in the Atlantic at the time, so it’s marginally possible that the Germans could have engaged the ship without realising that she wasn't British. The US is furious, war fever sweeps the nation and declares war on the Germans. The problem is that the US doesn’t have much to send at once, so Hitler might still go into Russia.

Now, assuming the Japanese stay out of the war, Germany is likely to be crushed between 1943 and 1944. The British will have more to use in the Middle East, while American production won’t have to worry about two fronts. The Battle of the Atlantic will be won by 1943. Chances are that the Japanese will watch the US growing vastly more powerful and try to find a way out of the Chinese quagmire without losing too much face. The Japanese did have good reasons to believe that they could cripple the US in 1941, even though they don’t stand up to scrutiny.

So we have a powerful nationalist state in the Far East during decolonisation. Do the Japanese still hold Indochina? If so, they could set up a puppet regime and then pull out, leaving the French without a good excuse to recover their colony. Chances are that decolonisation will soon leave the Dutch East Indies independent as well, and the Japanese would be in a good position to make deals with them.

On the downside, the US would probably start funnelling vast amounts of supplies into China. The Japanese would keep winning battles, but the Chinese would just be too big for them to chew up and digest. It could end with a negotiated peace, or maybe they’d just keep going until the Japanese were worn out. An alternate possibility is that Stalin invades in 1945 to support Mao (or someone he considers more biddable than Mao.).

I think that links between India and Britain would remain stronger than OTL if Japan was still a dangerous threat. The British wouldn’t have been so badly humiliated in WW2.

Chris