War of Danish Succesion

[Valdemar I]

This is something of a double POD

I was looking at Oldenburg family, and a interesting detail I found was that Frederik V was the first king in a century which produce a second legime son whom produced any children himself. But he only produced this son in his second marriage. His first wife died from a miscarriage in 1751. So what if Frederiks second marriage are childless. He had at this point one son and three daugthers. Of course the son became quite insane (depressive fixed with heavy use of alcohol, it could only get worse), but succed in producing a son. But what if in one of his darker moment he killed himself in 1765. Now we have the mix up for a Danish Succesion War. Frederiks oldest daugther was married to the King of Sweden, while his second daugther was married to the later Landgraf of Hesse-Cassel and the third to his brother. But we have other problems the Oldenburg sideline the Gottorps and Sönderburgs had claim to Schleswig-Holstein and Oldenburg.

So we have the problem the king of Sweden has the best claim to all the Oldenburgs possesions as a Gottorp married to the daugther of the king, Hesse-Kassel has a weaker claim, but they're aren't a big threat. Russia has weak claim on the Kingdoms, but a somewhat better claim on the duchies, but still a weaker one than either the Swedish king or the Söndeburgian dukes, but strong enough to compete with Hesse-Kassel.

[arctic warrior]

Originally Posted by Valdemar I

This is something of a double POD

I was looking at Oldenburg family, and a interesting detail I found was that Frederik V was the first king in a century which produce a second legime son whom produced any children himself. But he only produced this son in his second marriage. His first wife died from a miscarriage in 1751. So what if Frederiks second marriage are childless.

Then there wouldn't be a meddling dowager queen!

Originally Posted by Valdemar I

He had at this point one son and three daugthers. Of course the son became quite insane (depressive fixed with heavy use of alcohol, it could only get worse), but succed in producing a son. But what if in one of his darker moment he killed himself in 1765.

Or nobody wanted to supply a spouse? Or some kind of agreement in the ascesion of mad Christian to the throne that a ruling council be set up effectively depriving the monarch of any power!

Originally Posted by Valdemar I

Now we have the mix up for a Danish Succesion War. Frederiks oldest daugther was married to the King of Sweden, while his second daugther was married to the later Landgraf of Hesse-Cassel and the third to his brother. But we have other problems the Oldenburg sideline the Gottorps and Sönderburgs had claim to Schleswig-Holstein and Oldenburg.

So we have the problem the king of Sweden has the best claim to all the Oldenburgs possesions as a Gottorp married to the daugther of the king, Hesse-Kassel has a weaker claim, but they're aren't a big threat. Russia has weak claim on the Kingdoms, but a somewhat better claim on the duchies, but still a weaker one than either the Swedish king or the Söndeburgian dukes, but strong enough to compete with Hesse-Kassel.

Anyway Russia have to sanction anything; with JHE Bernstorff at the reins this should be possible.
Sorry but I find that Bernstorff holding estates in the Duchies and serving the Danish king would do his utmost to secure the succession in a peaceful manner.

About hereditary status - this dated only to the Royal Act of 1665; some way around it could perhaps be found. Anyway no provision had been made in the law of the king being mentally unable to rule.

Bernstorff would work in the interest of the country to avoid a devastating war.

Have to look up the family tree - I'll be back!

[arctic warrior]

Remember following the Seven Years War Bernstorff 1767 negotiated the exchange (Mageskiftet) of Oldenburg and Russian possessions in Schleswig-Holstein and entering treaty with Russia effectively having checked Sweden by treaty with Russia 1765!

I find Bernstorff would be quite capable of negotiating a settlement!

[Valdemar I]

Originally Posted by arctic warrior

Remember following the Seven Years War Bernstorff 1767 negotiated the exchange (Mageskiftet) of Oldenburg and Russian possessions in Schleswig-Holstein and entering treaty with Russia effectively having checked Sweden by treaty with Russia 1765!

I find Bernstorff would be quite capable of negotiating a settlement!

I think the problem are that neither Moltke or Bernstorff has interest in negotiating a settlement. If Wilhelm of Hessen become king, his grip on the throne are quite weak (by Danish standards), he more or less need to let Moltke and Bernstorff keep running things. Plus any negotiation would mean that Denmark would need to give up concession to Sweden either in Norway, Germany, Slesvig or on Sound Dues, while war would mean a alliance with Russia and UK against Sweden and France, Denmark has surprisingly little to lose on that conflict, even in the unlikely case that Denmark lose completely it means a union with Sweden, while the more likely smaller lose would only result in the same consequences as a negoation.

[arctic warrior]

Originally Posted by Valdemar I

I think the problem are that neither Moltke or Bernstorff has interest in negotiating a settlement.

Why not? If your employers a royal house that have given you status and estates I would assume you'd be interested in the well being of said royal house.

Originally Posted by Valdemar I

If Wilhelm of Hessen become king, his grip on the throne are quite weak (by Danish standards), he more or less need to let Moltke and Bernstorff keep running things.

Which to me would imply a dream like situation to either gentleman!

Originally Posted by Valdemar I

Plus any negotiation would mean that Denmark would need to give up concession to Sweden either in Norway, Germany, Slesvig or on Sound Dues, while war would mean a alliance with Russia and UK against Sweden and France, Denmark has surprisingly little to lose on that conflict, even in the unlikely case that Denmark lose completely it means a union with Sweden, while the more likely smaller lose would only result in the same consequences as a negoation.

Why would Denmark have to give up anything? OTL Bernstorff gave up nothing - managed to corner Sweden by the Russian alliance and in the end managed to secure the southern border by the exchange!

I know Bernstorff misinterpreted Katharines position initially but soon managed to get it right. With the French as OTL not wanting to continue the alliance, Britain really interested in overseas affairs and meddling in German affairs really used to be a no go the Russian alliance seems the right thing.
Given Katharines interest in the Baltic Denmark as OTL does have a good change of cornering Sweden and settling the border question and get the succession as a bonus.
Of course a male heir to the throne is needed - and I guess Bernstorff wouldn't like to part with his position at court as well as estates in the Duchies - which does leave us with a Russian alliance; Christian as the 7. and one of the Hessians as heir!

BTW the marriage of Sofia Magdalene to Gustav didn't take place until 1766 (negotiated 1751) and anyway the Holstein question had been settled by France in her alliance with both Nordic countries 1749 and Denmark had an understanding with Russia as early as 1746 which in the secret clause guaranteed the Swedish king would not come to rule gottorp Holstein!

What you really need is the situation in 1743 to escalate.