A Decade after Red Storm Rising?

[gtrof]

Thinking about doing this as a TL. What happens following the end of the Third World War in Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising? For those not quite familiar with it, the book has a conventional WWIII between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The war ends in a ceasefire with NATO having the upperhand. The USSR and Warsaw Pact have not collapsed at the end of the book.

I see three things happening within the first five years, the ending of the Warsaw Pact and collapse of the Communist puppet regimes. The USSR is intact more or less. The Persian Gulf war happens in some form. China preys on Soviet weakness in the Far East. NATO is reformatted with some states added and others kicked out.

Nuclear arsenals are reduced between the super-powers but new states acquire them in the Middle East and Africa.

[general_tiu]

What happens to the characters in the Novel then?

[Rick Deckard]

I would count on the Warsaw Pact collapsing. Clancy spent a couple pages on an East German unit's commander and gave the impression he/they were confused about what the drama was all about and were miffed at being treated like red headed step children. I suspect the Soviet Union collapses too from economic and political turmoil.

Here are two things I wonder about:

1. Would Iceland militarize?

2. Payback for the Japanese: If I recall correctly, the Japanese decided to stay out completely after falling for the Soviet ruse. That can't go well for them!

[Chris]

Cool thought. I don't think that the military government of the USSR will be keen on losing subject nations, but that may be inevitable with the beating the USSR took in the war. At the same time, the USSR still has nukes and can deal with any Chinese push from the east. I suspect that the junta will try to perform a balancing act and perhaps liberalise, at least to some degree. The warsaw pact might break up, but with an agreement that they won't join NATO.

There is a point, though. It says in the novel that the USSR altered its farming, pre-war, to get the young men off the farms. It also - the book said - enhanced what the farms could produce. If that were continued, the USSR wouldn't be so hungry post-war, which might keep people contented. (well, less unhappy).

Longer-term, 'peace' movements will have taken a beating. The Russians were happy to pull the wool over their eyes and they will probably suffer badly, as it is harder to remain deluded when russian tanks are moving west. Anti-Americanism will be less popular since the US saved Europe's bacon, again.

Worse, Germany will have been hammered and France/UK got badly hit.

I'd actually expect the US to put more effort into space tech in this TL. The war was nearly lost, after all. Building something like Project Thor might make sense.

Chris

[Rick Deckard]

Originally Posted by Chris

Cool thought. I don't think that the military government of the USSR will be keen on losing subject nations, but that may be inevitable with the beating the USSR took in the war.

My thoughts mainly go on the assumption the end of the war is not going to get oil flowing again. Sure, the West may help (rebuilding or access to Western markets) but there will likely be painful strings attached. I can't see the economy going well without fuel.

Originally Posted by Chris

Worse, Germany will have been hammered and France/UK got badly hit.

Really? Obviously Germany got hammered, but I don't recall much as to the UK and France beyond Soviet air raids.

[gtrof]

Originally Posted by Rick Deckard

I would count on the Warsaw Pact collapsing. Clancy spent a couple pages on an East German unit's commander and gave the impression he/they were confused about what the drama was all about and were miffed at being treated like red headed step children. I suspect the Soviet Union collapses too from economic and political turmoil.

I agree with most of that, not sure the USSR itself goes under. Sergetov might be able to hold things together. Like Chris said there is enough food for the Soviet people thanks to clever Agricultural Minster. I'd say enough Soviet Army strength remains to hold the country internally together. Question is whether Sergetov would let the Baltics or Ukraine go?

1. Would Iceland militarize?

I'd think not. The USSR has been eliminated as a conventional threat. Plus the island's strategic significance will decline with the end of the Cold War.

2. Payback for the Japanese: If I recall correctly, the Japanese decided to stay out completely after falling for the Soviet ruse. That can't go well for them!

Well remember according to Toland the Japanese were offered a stick, the return of the Kruiles back and threatened with strikes against them. However the US rights of those bases is absolute so maybe there is some bad blood there. I'd say for sure Greece is punished somehow say kicked out of NATO. They completely failed their treaty obligations.

Originally Posted by Chris

Longer-term, 'peace' movements will have taken a beating. The Russians were happy to pull the wool over their eyes and they will probably suffer badly, as it is harder to remain deluded when Russian tanks are moving west. Anti-Americanism will be less popular since the US saved Europe's bacon, again.

True but now they might gain strength cause the of the war itself. Much like the effect after World War I. Plus the American people might see their job as done with the victory, wanting to draw down forces and recede a bit on the global stage.

Worse, Germany will have been hammered and France/UK got badly hit.

I don't recall France and the UK suffering that bad. Sure British military installations were hit (Scotland's radar net) but I think the USSR restrained from hitting their cities. In France there was a raid on Le Harve but that's it. Germany of course is heavily damaged. How might that affect unification if it comes? Does it actually push it away?

I'd actually expect the US to put more effort into space tech in this TL. The war was nearly lost, after all. Building something like Project Thor might make sense.

With the USSR humbled the new 'enemy' to worry about is China. The US and USSR already proved that space warfare is here, so I could see development of more space weapons including Thor.

[general_tiu]

What if the West founds out that it was an Azerbaijani Islamic extremist that really sparked the catalyst? You know, the first scene where they blew up that big Soviet refinery in Siberia.

[Neroon]

I am not certain about the peace movents fate given the obvious post WW1 analogy. However I am reasonably certain that Europe's self-proclaimed anit-fascists are going to suffer. The Mashkirovka was all about portraying Germany as having gone back to it's Nazi ways. Once that collapses the "Nazism" card is pretty much purged from the political deck.
With the devastation from the war and the economic fallout still about to happen, we will probably see much less immigration to Europe anyways though.

Turkey and Greece might not get expelled from NATO, but neither one has a snowballs chance in hell of joining the EU.

Prospects for EU memebership could swing either way for former Warsaw Pact countries. Those might be seen as recent enemies or mutual victims.

Germany might get a new Marshall Plan. Will be much more pro-US even should the Warsaw Pact collapse completely.

Given that Castro stayed neutral. The Embargo might be lifted and relations normalized.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by gtrof

Well remember according to Toland the Japanese were offered a stick, the return of the Kruiles back and threatened with strikes against them. However the US rights of those bases is absolute so maybe there is some bad blood there. I'd say for sure Greece is punished somehow say kicked out of NATO. They completely failed their treaty obligations.

Japan can probably argue, rightfully, about constitutional limitations keeping them out of the war. But Turkey and Greece are done. The failed Europe and the United States. Turkey will be forced to turn to the Islamic world, and Greece will become even more of a continental backwater than it is IOTL.

I don't recall France and the UK suffering that bad. Sure British military installations were hit (Scotland's radar net) but I think the USSR restrained from hitting their cities. In France there was a raid on Le Harve but that's it. Germany of course is heavily damaged. How might that affect unification if it comes? Does it actually push it away?

I think I remember mentions of pretty intense aerial combat going on over the North Sea and the UK.

Unification will probably go forward. Ironically enough since W. Germany was hammered over the unification will be more as equals than West German annexation of East German.

[gtrof]

Originally Posted by Matt

Unification will probably go forward. Ironically enough since W. Germany was hammered over the unification will be more as equals than West German annexation of East German.

Interesting point. After all NATO focused on military targets not the GDR's industrial strength (as far as we know). So the more damage inflicted on the FRG might make them more equals. Can't imagine though that the GDR's army and air force are still fighting forces.